大越期货豆粕早报-20250612

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Bean Meal: The short - term outlook for domestic bean meal is to return to a range - bound pattern. The price of M2509 is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3060. The U.S. soybean growing weather and Sino - U.S. trade tariff game are the main focuses. The market is affected by factors such as the increase in imported soybeans arriving in June, the low inventory of domestic oil mills' bean meal, and the variable weather in the U.S. soybean - producing areas [8]. - Soybeans: The domestic soybean price is expected to move in a range of 4100 - 4200 for A2509. The market focuses on the impact of South American soybean harvesting weather and Sino - U.S. trade tariff game. Factors like the cost of imported soybeans, the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, the continuous high - yield expectation of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production all influence the price [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Tips - Bean Meal: The domestic bean meal market is affected by the U.S. soybean market, with the increase in imported soybeans in June and weak spot prices suppressing the upward space of the futures market. It is in a neutral state in the short - term [8]. - Soybeans: The domestic soybean market is influenced by the U.S. soybean trend, the cost of imported soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. It is also in a neutral state in the short - term [10]. 2. Recent News - The short - term agreement of Sino - U.S. tariff negotiation is beneficial to U.S. soybeans, but the good weather for U.S. soybean planting has led to a short - term decline after the rise of the U.S. soybean market. The domestic imported soybean arrivals reached a high in May, and the soybean inventory has rebounded from a low level, while the bean meal inventory remains low. The domestic pig - raising profit has decreased, leading to a weak demand for bean meal after May Day [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bean Meal Bullish Factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' bean meal, and variable weather in the U.S. soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bean Meal Bearish Factors: The increase in the total arrivals of domestic imported soybeans in June, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous high - yield expectation of South American soybeans [13]. - Soybean Bullish Factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Soybean Bearish Factors: Continuous high - yield expectation of Brazilian soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Bean Meal: The spot price in East China is 2850, with a basis of - 197, showing a discount to the futures. The oil mill's bean meal inventory is 38.25 tons, a 28.36% increase from last week and a 65.19% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - Soybeans: The spot price is 4160, with a basis of - 3, showing a discount to the futures. The oil mill's soybean inventory is 610.29 tons, a 4.7% increase from last week and a 24.7% increase from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - Bean Meal: The main long positions have decreased, but the capital has flowed in [8]. - Soybeans: The main short positions have increased, and the capital has flowed in [10].