LPG早报-20250612

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the LPG market remain weak. Although the chemical demand in Shandong provides some support, there is significant supply pressure in other regions and demand continues to be sluggish [1]. - It is expected that the external release volume will continue to increase and the inbound volume will decline. Chemical demand is expected to be supported in the short - term, with the PDH operating rate expected to rise next week. The demand for alkylation oil is expected to increase with the recovery of gasoline demand, and the demand for C4 is expected to increase due to the planned start - up of multiple MTBE plants next week. Combustion demand is expected to decline as the temperature rises [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Daily Changes - In terms of civil gas, the price in Shandong remained stable at 4620, in East China increased by 1 to 4492, and in South China increased by 40 to 4630. The price of ether - after carbon four increased by 20 to 4830. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4492 [1]. - The PP price rose, and the profits of PP production from FEI and CP increased. The PG futures price fluctuated upwards. The basis of the 07 contract decreased by 10 to 362, and the spread between the 07 - 09 contracts increased by 7 to 210. The arbitrage window from the US to the Far East was closed [1]. Weekly Views - Last week, the overall civil gas market was weak. Supported by chemical demand, the price in Shandong increased, while the price of ether - after carbon four decreased. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4449 [1]. - The PG futures price fluctuated strongly. The basis of the 07 contract weakened to 351, and the spread between contracts strengthened significantly. In the external market, FEI and MB were basically the same, and CP declined; the oil - gas ratio increased. The internal - external price difference strengthened, especially the PG - CP [1]. - The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed, and freight rates increased slightly. Among different product spreads, the production margin of PDH improved but remained poor; the production profit of FEI was higher than that of PP. The profitability of alkylation oil increased, the profit of gas fractionation and etherification changed little, and the profit of isomerization and etherification increased. The FEI - MOPJ decreased, and the naphtha crack spread changed little [1]. - In terms of fundamentals, port inventories increased slightly, and terminals actively offered discounts. Factory inventories increased, and the factory inventories in Shandong decreased due to chemical demand. The arrival volume increased (mainly in South China), and the external release volume increased significantly [1]. - The number of registered warehouse receipts was 9304 lots (- 565) [1].