大越期货菜粕早报-20250612

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2610 - 2670. The short - term trend is slightly bullish due to factors such as low inventory of rapeseed meal and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, but it will return to range - bound trading influenced by factors like increased imports of rapeseed and the impact of soybean meal [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal oscillates and rebounds. The low - level operation of oil mills and low inventory support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal enters the peak season. The increase in the arrival of imported rapeseed does not pose short - term pressure on the inventory of oil mills. The short - term trend is slightly bullish. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but the positive effect may be limited [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market. - The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing, with the future result uncertain. - The global rapeseed output has slightly decreased this year, mainly affected by the decline in EU rapeseed output and lower - than - expected Canadian rapeseed output. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the reduction in Ukrainian rapeseed output and the increase in Russian rapeseed output offsetting each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports bulk commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The increase in the arrival of imported rapeseed after March; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 19,000 tons, a 5% week - on - week decrease from last week's 20,000 tons and a 32.14% year - on - year decrease from 28,000 tons in the same period last year [9]. - Price: The spot price is 2540, with a basis of - 98, indicating a discount to the futures price [9]. - Market trend: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards [9]. - Supply and demand balance sheets: Data on domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023 are provided, including information on harvest area, inventory, output, consumption, etc. [23][24]. 3.5 Position Data - The long positions of the main players have increased, and capital has flowed in [9]. - The import of rapeseed in June is lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuates strongly. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills has stopped falling and rebounded, while the rapeseed meal inventory has slightly declined. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills has slightly increased [25][28][30].