甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250612

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Methanol: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It's in a period of bearish factor realization. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, it's advisable to consider long - positions at low prices [1]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. The number of maintenance in June is decreasing, and domestic linear production is increasing. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [6]. - PP (Polypropylene): The upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, non - standard price spread is neutral, and import profit is around - 500. Exports are performing well. Supply in June is expected to increase slightly. In the context of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to grow or PDH plants have more maintenance [6]. - PVC: The basis has strengthened. The downstream has a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. The mid - upstream inventory is continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants, export sustainability, coal prices, etc. The current static inventory is at a high level but decreasing, and the downstream performance is mediocre [10]. 3) Summary by Product Methanol - Price Data: From June 5th to June 11th, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of spot methanol in different regions and related indicators such as CFR China, import profit, etc., showed certain fluctuations. For example, the Jiangsu spot price increased from 2317 to 2383, and the daily change on June 11th was - 7 compared to the previous day [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - Price Data: From June 5th to June 11th, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 780. The prices of different types of polyethylene in various regions and related indicators like import profit, basis, etc., had some changes. For example, the East China LL price increased by 10 on June 11th compared to the previous day [6]. PP (Polypropylene) - Price Data: From June 5th to June 11th, the Shandong propylene price remained stable at some points, and the prices of PP in different regions and related indicators such as export profit, basis, etc., fluctuated. For example, the East China PP price decreased by 5 on June 11th compared to the previous day [6]. PVC - Price Data: From June 5th to June 11th, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2350 on some days, and the prices of PVC in different regions and related indicators such as export profit, comprehensive profit, basis, etc., had certain changes. For example, the Shandong caustic soda price decreased by 10 on June 11th compared to the previous day [9][10].