Industry Investment Rating - Not available Core Viewpoints - The index has stable support below but faces pressure to break through above. The tariff negotiation is still ongoing, and the index fluctuates in the short - term due to news. The big - finance sector leads the upward movement, and the stock index rebounds comprehensively. The Sino - US economic and trade negotiation has reached a framework consensus, but there is no incremental information. The uncertainty of Treasury bond futures has weakened, and the overall situation is strong. Gold maintains a range - bound oscillation and may have pulse - type fluctuations. The increase in US inflation is less than expected, supporting the Fed to cut interest rates earlier, and the Middle East geopolitical tensions drive up the price of gold. The container shipping index is in a shock consolidation. The demand and inventory of industrial steel materials are deteriorating. The iron ore is in a range - bound oscillation. The coking coal and coke market expectations are improving. The prices of various energy - chemical and agricultural products show different trends [2] Summary by Variety Financial - Stock Index: The index has stable support below and pressure to break through above. The big - finance sector leads the upward movement, and the stock index rebounds comprehensively. It is recommended to sell the put options of the CSI 1000 Index with an exercise price around 5800 in July to collect the premium [2] - Treasury Bond: The uncertainty of Treasury bond futures has weakened, and the overall situation is strong. In the short - term, it is advisable to allocate long positions on dips. Pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract. If there is no sudden change in the trade negotiation this week, Treasury bond futures may continue to oscillate strongly. Currently, 1.6% is the downward resistance level of the 10 - year bond interest rate [2] - Precious Metal: Gold maintains a range - bound oscillation and may have pulse - type fluctuations. Do the double - selling strategy of out - of - the - money gold options to earn time value. Consider going long on the main contract on dips. Be cautious about the flow of speculative funds in silver and the "killing decline" caused by long - position profit - taking [2] Black - Steel: The demand and inventory of industrial steel materials are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline range of apparent demand. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and focus on the arbitrage operation of going long on finished products and short on raw materials [2] - Iron Ore: It is in a range - bound oscillation, with a reference range of 700 - 745. Pay attention to the marginal change of terminal demand [2] - Coking Coal: The market auction non - successful bid rate has decreased, the coal mine start - up has declined from a high level, and the spot has signs of stabilizing. It is recommended to go long on JM2509 on dips [2] - Coke: The third round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 6 has been implemented. The futures price has a rebound expectation. It is recommended to go long on J2509 on dips [2] - Silicon Iron: It is in a bottom - range oscillation. Try to go short when it rebounds to 5300 - 5400 [2] - Manganese Silicon: The supply pressure still exists. It is in a bottom - range oscillation. Try to go short when it rebounds to 5700 - 5800 [2] Non - ferrous - Copper: The domestic spot trading has weakened, and the US copper restocking continues. The main contract reference range is 77000 - 80000 [2] - Zinc: The mine - end resumption of production provides incremental supply, and the zinc price oscillates weakly [2] - Nickel: The afternoon sentiment improved, and the price rose slightly. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [2] - Stainless Steel: After the price limit was partially restored, the price turned red, but the fundamental contradiction remains unchanged. It is recommended to adopt a high - short strategy after the sentiment stabilizes. The main contract reference range is 12400 - 13000 [2] - Tin: Due to the slow recovery of supply and the warming of macro - sentiment, the tin price continues to rise. It is recommended to adopt a short - term long - bias strategy [2] Energy - Chemical - Crude Oil: Geopolitical risks are rising. The short - term oil price is likely to continue the strong - bias oscillation trend. Pay attention to the opportunity of monthly spread expansion [2] - Urea: The supply is at a high level, and the demand has not improved. The downward pressure on the price remains. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and wait for the rebound opportunity. The support level of the main contract is adjusted to 1620 - 1640. Consider the 09 - 01 reverse arbitrage [2] - PX: The cost side is strong, and the supply - demand situation is good. It has support at 6400 - 6500 in the short - term. Do short - term long operations; mainly do short - term reverse arbitrage for PX9 - 1; shrink the PX - SC spread when it is high [2] - PTA: The supply - demand situation is gradually weakening, but the cost side is strong. It is in a stalemate oscillation. Operate in the range of 4500 - 4800 in the short - term; mainly do reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 when it is high [2] - Short - fiber: Under the expectation of factory production cuts, the short - term processing fee has slightly recovered, but the driving force is still limited. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA; expand the processing fee on the PF disk when it is low [2] - Bottle Chip: In the peak demand season, there is an expectation of production cuts for bottle chips, and the processing fee is bottom - seeking. It follows the cost fluctuation. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA. The processing fee on the main PF disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to expand it at the lower edge of the range [2] - Ethanol: The short - term demand is weak, but the supply - demand structure of MEG is still good. It is expected to oscillate in the range. Oscillate in the range of 4200 - 4400 for EG09 in the short - term; pay attention to the opportunity of positive arbitrage for EG9 - 1 on dips [2] - Benzene Ethylene: The short - term raw materials and benzene ethylene destocking support the price. Pay attention to the medium - term contradiction. Wait and see in the short - term, and consider high - short operations in the medium - term when there is a raw material resonance opportunity [2] - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand expectation is not good, the spot price has回调, and the near - month support is insufficient. Exit the 7 - 9 positive arbitrage. Wait and see for unilateral operations [2] - PVC: The short - term contradiction has not further intensified, and the macro - disturbance has increased. The price is in a low - level consolidation. Wait and see in the short - term, and maintain a high - short strategy for medium - and long - term participation [2] - Synthetic Rubber: BR follows the commodity price fluctuation. Hold the short position of BR2507 [2] - LLDPE: The spot price and basis change little, and the trading volume is moderate [2] - PP: The supply and demand are both weak, and it oscillates weakly. Oscillate weakly and go short on rallies [2] - Methanol: The inventory inflection point has appeared, and it oscillates [2] Agricultural - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal: During the Sino - US trade negotiation, the price runs strongly [2] - Pig: The demand is weak due to the hot weather, but the rising feed price boosts the price. Pay attention to the performance around 13500 [2] - Corn: The upward momentum weakens, and it oscillates at a high level. Oscillate around 2380 in the short - term [2] - Palm Oil: Affected by the concern about production, it falls inertia - ally. It may test the support at 7800 in the short - term [2] - Sugar: The overseas supply outlook is loose. Do short - selling on rebounds, with a reference range of 5600 - 5850 [2] - Cotton: The downstream market remains weak. Do short - selling on rebounds [2] - Egg: There is a risk that the spot price may weaken again. Do short - selling on the rebound of the 07 contract and hold the short position [2] - Apple: The price in the sales area is stable, and the transaction is priced according to quality. The main contract runs around 7500 [2] - Jujube: The market price runs weakly and stably. It runs around 8900 in the short - term [2] - Peanut: The market price oscillates. The main contract runs around 8200 [2] - Soda Ash: The over - supply logic continues. Maintain the high - short strategy on rebounds. Hold the high - level short position and do the 7 - 9 positive arbitrage [2] Special Commodities - Glass: Affected by the cold - repair news, the price fluctuates repeatedly. Wait and see in the short - term [2] - Rubber: The driving force is limited, and the rubber price oscillates. Adopt a high - short strategy when it rebounds above 14000 [2] - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The industrial silicon futures price rises, and the futures - spot price gradually converges. The polysilicon futures price stabilizes and rebounds. Hold the short position cautiously or close the position first [2] - Lithium Carbonate: Affected by the news, the price rises, but the fundamental logic remains unchanged. Observe the performance around 62,000 first [2]
广发期货日评-20250612
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-06-12 06:47