Report Overview - Report Name: Shanghai Copper Industry Daily Report - Date: June 12, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai Copper main contract fluctuates weakly, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Fundamentally, the processing fees for copper concentrates remain low, and the supply of international concentrates is still tight. In terms of supply, although the port inventory in China has decreased, it is still at a sufficient level. After the easing of relations with the US, scrap copper imports are expected to supplement, and smelters' raw materials are temporarily sufficient, with production willingness improving. In terms of demand, as copper prices have been at a relatively high level recently, downstream purchasing willingness has decreased with the weakening of off - season orders, and the trading willingness in the spot market is average. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai Copper may be in a situation of sufficient supply and slightly shrinking demand. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.05, with a month - on - month increase of 0.0534, indicating a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Copper futures main contract is 78,610 yuan/ton, down 680 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,657 US dollars/ton, up 9 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 160 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai Copper is 203,273 lots, down 6,250 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai Copper is - 2,398 lots, up 2,053 lots. The LME copper inventory is 119,450 tons, down 950 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 107,404 tons, up 1,613 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of cathode copper is 32,785 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 79,075 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 79,100 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 62 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 37 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 465 yuan/ton, up 445 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) is 55.49 US dollars/ton, down 28.61 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 292.44 million tons, up 53.13 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of Chinese copper smelters is - 43.29 US dollars/thousand tons, up 0.27 US dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 69,620 yuan/metal ton, up 50 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan is 70,320 yuan/metal ton, up 50 yuan. The processing fee for rough copper in the South is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee for rough copper in the North is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, up 0.60 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 427,000 tons, down 13,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,790 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 570 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 208.10 million tons, down 4.42 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 140.816 billion yuan, up 45.195 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 2,772.957 billion yuan, up 782.54 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,167 million pieces, down 30,199.90 pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Copper is 9.26%, down 0.23%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Copper is 10.40%, up 0.29%. The implied volatility of at - the - money options is 12.87%, up 0.0020%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.05, up 0.0534 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From June 9th to 10th local time, the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, UK. The two sides had a candid and in - depth dialogue, exchanged in - depth views on economic and trade issues of concern, and reached a principled consensus on measures to implement the important consensus of the phone call between the two heads of state on June 5th and consolidate the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks, making new progress in addressing each other's economic and trade concerns. In May, China's automobile market continued to grow, with automobile production and sales reaching 2.649 million and 2.686 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2% respectively. The monthly sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.307 million, a year - on - year increase of 36.9%, accounting for 48.7% of the overall market. From January to May, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles were 5.608 million, a year - on - year increase of 44%. In May, automobile exports were 551,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.5%, and the cumulative exports in the first five months were 2.49 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The latest inflation data in the US remains moderate. The CPI in May increased by 2.4% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month, both lower than expected. After the CPI data was released, US President Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates by one percentage point. Wall Street traders also increased their bets on Fed rate cuts, basically expecting two rate cuts this year, and interest rate swaps showed that traders expected a 75% probability of a rate cut by the Fed before September. However, the Fed may continue to keep interest rates unchanged at next week's interest rate meeting. Affected by the weakening downstream market demand, some wire and cable enterprises are facing the pressure of reduced orders. To boost the purchasing power of downstream enterprises, enterprises have adopted special promotion strategies similar to the "618" shopping festival [2].
瑞达期货沪铜产业日报-20250612
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-12 08:54