瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-20250612

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable, but the supply - side has all manufacturers operating at reduced loads, and the expectation of new capacity launch is increasing. Most enterprises are in the stage of losing cash cost, and production enthusiasm is frustrated. The demand - side is relatively weak, with downstream photovoltaic component production schedules reduced, silicon wafer enterprise self - discipline quotas lowered, and cell enterprises having production reduction plans. Terminal market has strong wait - and - see sentiment after the "rush to install" boom. The new photovoltaic installation policy since June 1st reduces the rate of return, and overseas market demand is uncertain due to macro - economic instability and international trade frictions. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, suppressing market prices. Long - term operation should focus on short - selling [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 33,585 yuan/ton, a decrease of 670 yuan; the 07 - 08 contract spread is 1,265 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan; the main contract position is 61,698 lots, an increase of 1,499 lots; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread is 26,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 565 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 36,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan; the basis is 2,245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.28 US dollars/kg, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 7,455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan; the spot price is 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly output is 299,700 tons, a decrease of 36,050 tons; the monthly export volume is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the total social inventory is 58.7 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 96,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 954 tons, a decrease of 1,952 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 5.01 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price is 2.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.14 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 7,192.8 million kilowatts, a decrease of 651.6 million kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 83,789.32 million pieces, a decrease of 11,583.8 million pieces; the monthly import volume is 20,120.44 million pieces, an increase of 10,274.32 million pieces; the monthly average import price is 0.29 US dollars/piece, an increase of 0.02 US dollars/piece [2]. Industry News - As of June 11th, the mainstream market prices of P - type polysilicon cauliflower material, N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type granular silicon, and N - type polysilicon are stable. The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London on June 9th and continued on June 10th [2].