瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20250612

Report Date - The report is dated June 12, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Report's Core View - The raw material cost support has weakened due to the implementation of the PNBP policy in Indonesia and the planned nickel ore export ban in the Philippines, along with the release of nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia and the decline in nickel - iron prices [2] - On the supply side, steel mills maintain normal production. Although they cut the production of 300 - series stainless steel, the supply is still at a historical high and the supply pressure remains [2] - On the demand side, it is the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainty, export demand pressure, and downstream caution towards high - priced goods. Domestic inventory de - stocking is poor [2] - Technically, it is expected to be in a weak oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see or take a small short position [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,585 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the 07 - 08 contract spread is - 35 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 707 lots, an increase of 1027 lots; the main contract position is 181,372 lots, a decrease of 5791 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 118,985 tons, a decrease of 320 tons [2] 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - The basis of the SS main contract is 510 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron production is 21,700 metal tons, a decrease of 1100 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 18,746.54 tons, an increase of 10,187.11 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 816,900 tons, a decrease of 196,400 tons [2] - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 121,900 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 945 yuan/nickel point, down 5 yuan [2] - The monthly Chinese chromite production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8243 million tons, a decrease of 77,500 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 611,400 tons, an increase of 5200 tons [2] - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 178.3584 million square meters, an increase of 48.3938 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 26,000 units, a decrease of 7200 units [2] - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is - 14,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 12,000 units, a decrease of 1000 units [2] Industry News - In May, the US unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.4% (market expectation: 2.5%), the unadjusted CPI monthly rate was 0.1% (market expectation: 0.2%), the unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.8% (market expectation: 2.9%), and the seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate was 0.1% (market expectation: 0.3%) [2] - Chinese and US teams had in - depth exchanges and reached a framework on implementing the consensus of the leaders' phone call on June 5 and the Geneva talks [2]