建信期货铝日报-20250613

Report Information - Report Date: June 13, 2025 [2] - Report Industry: Aluminum [1] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Overseas cornering concerns are still fermenting, but the cornering risk may decline as the delivery is approaching next week. The SHFE-LME ratio dropped significantly on the 12th, and the import loss narrowed again to within a thousand yuan, closing at -903 yuan/ton. Supported by low inventories, SHFE aluminum continued to rise with increasing positions. The main 2507 contract rose 1.12% to 20395, and the 06-07 premium widened to 280. The total open interest of the index increased by 33,901 to 596,797 lots. The 2511 contract of cast aluminum alloy continued to rise slightly following SHFE aluminum, closing at 19,460, with a spread of -570 yuan/ton compared to SHFE aluminum 2511, which is at a historically low level. Currently in the off-season of the automotive industry, the price of cast aluminum and the AD-AL spread are expected to remain at a relatively low level. With tight supplies in East China, the back structure further expanded, and holders continued to raise premiums. The premium in East China was 70 on the day, but the premiums in Central China and South China weakened. The premium in Central China was 10, and the discount in South China was -100. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widened, opening the cross-regional arbitrage window, and supplies were gradually transported to East China by water. Alumina prices rebounded but then fell again due to increasing expectations of oversupply. However, the price of Guinean bauxite stabilized due to policy disturbances, and the spot discount was relatively deep, so there is no excessive bearish outlook for the future. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level. As the off-season in the demand side approaches, the operating rate of processing enterprises has weakened marginally, but the increase in the proportion of molten aluminum has supported the low inventory level. On the market, aluminum prices are temporarily strong due to overseas cornering interference in the short term. For unilateral trading, wait for high-selling opportunities next week. For arbitrage, consider buying AD and selling AL [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Price and Spread: The main 2507 contract of SHFE aluminum rose 1.12% to 20395, and the 06-07 premium widened to 280. The 2511 contract of cast aluminum alloy closed at 19,460, with a spread of -570 yuan/ton compared to SHFE aluminum 2511 [8]. - Open Interest: The total open interest of the index increased by 33,901 to 596,797 lots [8]. - Regional Premiums: The premium in East China was 70, the premium in Central China was 10, and the discount in South China was -100. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widened, opening the cross-regional arbitrage window [8]. - Operation Suggestions: Wait for high-selling opportunities next week for unilateral trading. Consider buying AD and selling AL for arbitrage [8]. 3.2 Industry News - Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA): Plans to invest $4 billion in building an aluminum plant in Oklahoma, USA, with an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons of primary aluminum. Construction will start at the end of 2026 and be completed in 2030. EGA will also cooperate with RTX and Tawazun Council on a gallium project [9][10]. - Norsk Hydro: Will close its Birtley extrusion plant in the UK at the end of May due to the challenging market environment. The plant has an annual production capacity of about 12,000 tons and the closure will affect 100 employees [10]. - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX): The London Metal Exchange (LME) has approved the addition of three storage facilities in Hong Kong, bringing the total number to seven. The first four facilities will start operating in July [10]. - Guinea: The transitional authorities have classified several mining rights as strategic reserve areas, including bauxite, iron, gold, diamond, and graphite exploration licenses and industrial and semi-industrial mining concessions [10].