Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Last week, the overall civil gas market was weak. Shandong's civil gas rose due to chemical demand support, while ether - after carbon four declined. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4449. The PG futures market oscillated and trended stronger. The basis of the 07 contract weakened to 351, and the monthly spread strengthened significantly. Externally, FEI and MB were basically flat, CP declined, and the oil - gas ratio increased. The internal - external price difference strengthened, especially PG - CP. The US - Asia arbitrage window closed, and freight rates rose slightly. [1] - In terms of inter - variety spreads, the production margin of PDH improved but remained poor. The production profit of FEI was higher than that of PP. The profitability of alkylated oil increased, the profit of gas fractionation and etherification changed little, and the profit of isomerization and etherification increased. FEI - MOPJ decreased, and the naphtha crack spread changed little. [1] - Fundamentally, port inventories increased slightly, and terminals actively offered discounts. Factory inventories increased, and Shandong's factory inventories decreased due to chemical demand support. Arrivals increased (mainly in South China), and external sales increased significantly. It is expected that external sales will continue to increase and arrivals will decline. Chemical demand is expected to be supported in the short term. The PDH operating rate was basically flat and is expected to increase next week (the first - phase PDH of Qingdao Jinneng may resume). Subsequently, the demand for alkylated oil is expected to increase with the recovery of gasoline demand. Next week, several MTBE plants have plans to start production, so the demand for C4 is expected to increase. With rising temperatures, combustion demand is expected to decline. In addition, the number of registered warrants decreased by 565 to 9304 lots. Overall, the fundamentals remain weak. Shandong's chemical demand provides some support, but there is significant supply pressure in other regions and demand continues to be sluggish. [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Directory Daily Changes - In the civil gas market, Shandong remained stable at 4620, East China at 4492, and South China at 4630. Ether - after carbon four remained stable at 4830. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4492. The PP price increased, while the profit of PP production from FEI and CP decreased. The PG futures market oscillated and trended upward. The basis of the 07 contract decreased by 11 to 351, and the 07 - 09 monthly spread decreased by 9 to 201. The US - Far East arbitrage window closed. [1] - The daily changes in prices are as follows: propane CFR South China increased by 2 to 595, propane CIF Japan increased by 7 to 561, MB propane spot increased by 1 to 78, CP forecast contract price increased by 4 to 587, and alkylated oil in Shandong increased by 30 to 7750. The paper import profit decreased by 4 to - 268, and the main basis decreased by 11. Other prices remained stable. [1] Weekly View - Last week, the civil gas market was generally weak. Shandong's civil gas rose due to chemical demand support, while ether - after carbon four declined. The PG futures market oscillated and trended stronger. The basis of the 07 contract weakened, and the monthly spread strengthened significantly. Externally, FEI and MB were basically flat, CP declined, and the oil - gas ratio increased. The internal - external price difference strengthened, especially PG - CP. The US - Asia arbitrage window closed, and freight rates rose slightly. [1] - In terms of inter - variety spreads, the production margin of PDH improved but remained poor. The production profit of FEI was higher than that of PP. The profitability of alkylated oil increased, the profit of gas fractionation and etherification changed little, and the profit of isomerization and etherification increased. FEI - MOPJ decreased, and the naphtha crack spread changed little. [1] - Fundamentally, port inventories increased slightly, and terminals actively offered discounts. Factory inventories increased, and Shandong's factory inventories decreased due to chemical demand support. Arrivals increased (mainly in South China), and external sales increased significantly. It is expected that external sales will continue to increase and arrivals will decline. Chemical demand is expected to be supported in the short term. The PDH operating rate was basically flat and is expected to increase next week (the first - phase PDH of Qingdao Jinneng may resume). Subsequently, the demand for alkylated oil is expected to increase with the recovery of gasoline demand. Next week, several MTBE plants have plans to start production, so the demand for C4 is expected to increase. With rising temperatures, combustion demand is expected to decline. In addition, the number of registered warrants decreased by 565 to 9304 lots. Overall, the fundamentals remain weak. Shandong's chemical demand provides some support, but there is significant supply pressure in other regions and demand continues to be sluggish. [1]
LPG早报-20250613
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-06-13 02:37