瑞达期货聚丙烯产业日报-20250613

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PP2509 rose 0.22% to close at 6,969 yuan/ton. On the supply side, this week's PP production increased by 2.36% month-on-month to 757,700 tons, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 1.63% month-on-month to 78.64%. On the demand side, the average operating rate of PP downstream industries decreased by 0.04% month-on-month to 49.87%. In terms of inventory, this week's PP commercial inventory decreased by 4.04% month-on-month to 786,000 tons, with little pressure. Recently, with the launch of new production capacity and the restart of shutdown devices, the pressure on the supply side of the PP industry has increased. It is the off-season for downstream industries, the demand continues to be weak, and the downstream operating rate maintains a slight downward trend. Overseas demand declines seasonally, making it difficult to ease the domestic supply-demand contradiction. Recently, international oil prices have strengthened due to macro-positive factors and the deterioration of geopolitical situations, enhancing the cost support for oil-based production. In the short term, PP2509 is expected to show a volatile trend. Pay attention to the support around 6,930 and the resistance around 7,020 on the daily K-line [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polypropylene was 6,969 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 6,918 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 6,909 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 6,969 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The trading volume of polypropylene (PP) was 208,464 lots, a decrease of 15,731 lots; the open interest was 490,786 lots, a decrease of 10,626 lots. The buy order volume of the top 20 holders was 423,197 lots, a decrease of 10,118 lots; the sell order volume was 491,914 lots, a decrease of 6,769 lots; the net buy order volume was -68,717 lots, a decrease of 3,349 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of polypropylene PP was 7,560 lots, an increase of 2,500 lots [2]. Spot Market - The CFR Southeast Asia middle price of PP (fiber/injection molding) was 904 US dollars/ton; the CFR Far East middle price of PP (homopolymer injection molding) was 859 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. The duty-paid self-pickup price of PP (drawn grade) in Zhejiang was 7,140 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The CFR China price of propylene was 751 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price of propane in the Far East was 560 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton. The FOB price of naphtha in Singapore was 61.66 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.25 US dollars/barrel; the CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 571.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of polypropylene (PP) in petrochemical enterprises was 77.01%, an increase of 1.57 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The average operating rate of polypropylene was 50.01%, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points; the operating rate of plastic weaving was 44.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points; the operating rate of injection molding was 56.09%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the operating rate of BOPP was 60.41%, an increase of 0.65 percentage points; the operating rate of PP pipes was 36.13%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points; the operating rate of tape master rolls was 50.74%, unchanged; the operating rate of PP non-woven fabrics was 37.03%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points; the operating rate of CPP was 57.38%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The 20-day historical volatility of polypropylene was 7.41%, a decrease of 2.41 percentage points; the 40-day historical volatility was 9.09%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at-the-money put options for polypropylene was 10.12%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points; the implied volatility of at-the-money call options was 10.12%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From June 6th to 12th, the domestic polypropylene production was 757,700 tons, a 2.36% increase from the previous period; the average capacity utilization rate was 78.64%, a 1.63% increase from the previous period. - From June 6th to 12th, the average operating rate of domestic polypropylene downstream industries decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 49.87%. - As of June 11th, the total commercial inventory of polypropylene in China was 786,000 tons, a 4.04% decrease from the previous period [2].