永安期货有色日报-20250613

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Different industries have varying import profit, internal - external price differences, and trading logics. Attention should be paid to factors such as tariff policies, supply - demand relationships, and production schedules [1][2]. 3. Summary by Industry Agriculture - Cotton: Affected by trade wars, sanctions, and tariff policies, the relationship between domestic and foreign cotton prices has reversed. Currently, Zhengzhou cotton is stronger than US cotton, and continuous attention should be paid to subsequent tariff policy changes [2]. - Oilseeds and Oils: These commodities have a high degree of import dependence. Trade flows and logistics are smooth. The risks from the international upstream of the industrial chain are transmitted to domestic terminals through basis contracts, and the focus is on the difference in internal - external supply - demand rhythms [2]. Iron Ore - In the short - term, the shipment and arrival of iron ore have increased, iron - making water production is oscillating at a high level. Overseas macro - environment has strong short - term disturbances, while the domestic macro - environment is relatively stable. The price center of iron ore has declined, and there are few short - term internal - external price difference opportunities. In the long - term, the global balance sheet is slightly in surplus compared to China's [1]. Oil Products - SC: The spot discount on arrival has weakened, and the internal - external price relationship has weakened [1]. - FU: In summer, the internal - external relationship maintains a weak pattern and has been oscillating recently [1]. - LU: The internal - external price difference has widened again, and domestic production in June is relatively high [1]. - PG: Recently, FEI and MB have fallen, CP has risen. The internal - external price difference has declined, especially for PG - CP [1]. PX - Domestic PX production has declined, and there are still some overseas maintenance. As TA restarts, the de - stocking of PX is expected to increase. The current internal - external price difference has converged significantly, and the valuation is gradually neutral. It is advisable to wait and see [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Aluminum: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage to take profit [1]. - Tin: With the smooth resumption of production of overseas and Myanmar mines, pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage as the LME inventory has been low recently [1]. - Zinc: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage [1]. Precious Metals - Gold: Affected by the RMB exchange rate and consumption seasons, the internal - external price ratio has rapidly declined [3]. - Silver: The spot discount has widened, and the import window has closed [3]. Exchange Rates - The US dollar index, on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, and other exchange rates have shown different degrees of decline over different time periods [3].