大越期货尿素早报-20250613

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is currently characterized by an obvious oversupply situation. The supply side shows high operating rates and daily production, with new device put into operation recently and a slight increase in inventory. On the demand side, the industrial demand sees a decline in the compound fertilizer operating rate, a neutral operating rate for melamine, and short - term weak agricultural demand. Although the export profit is high due to the implementation of export policies and the dual - track price system, it has little impact on domestic prices. The report predicts that the UR contract will show a weak and volatile trend today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures price has been falling recently. Supply is abundant with high operating rates, daily production, and new device commissioning, leading to a slight inventory build - up. Industrial demand in compound fertilizer is weakening, melamine operating rate is neutral, and agricultural demand is short - term weak. There is an obvious oversupply. The spot price of the deliverable is 1850 (unchanged). Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 204, with a premium - discount ratio of 11.0%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.31 million tons (+128,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - Futures: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: With the decline of the main urea contract, high daily production, slight inventory build - up, and short - term weak agricultural demand, the overall oversupply is obvious. It is expected that the UR will show a weak and volatile trend today [4]. Factors Affecting Urea Market - Bullish Factors: None mentioned explicitly. - Bearish Factors: High operating rates and daily production, new device commissioning, and overall weak demand. The main logic is oversupply and marginal changes in demand. The main risk point is the change in export policies [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - Spot: The spot price of the deliverable is 1850 (unchanged), Shandong spot is 1850 (unchanged), Henan spot is 1860 (unchanged), and FOB China is 1869 [6]. - Futures: The price of the 09 contract is 1646 (-21), UR01 is 1635 (-12), and UR05 is 1664 (-21). The basis is 204 (+21) [6]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.31 million tons, the UR factory inventory is 1.192 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 118,000 tons [6]. Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 - 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% - 15.5%. The production volume has also generally increased, but the growth rate of apparent consumption has fluctuated. The import dependence has been decreasing. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [10].