《特殊商品》日报-20250613

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Under the expectation of increasing supply and weakening demand, the subsequent rubber price is expected to remain weak. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rebounds above 14,000. Pay attention to the raw material supply in each producing area and macro - event disturbances [2]. Industrial Silicon - Although the demand for industrial silicon is expected to improve in June, the supply increase is larger, and the inventory is expected to accumulate, putting pressure on the price. However, due to the low absolute price and the enhancement of disk procurement, there may be price rebounds, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. If the polysilicon production increases, it is beneficial for the arbitrage of buying industrial silicon and shorting polysilicon [5]. Polysilicon - In June, there is no obvious improvement in the fundamentals. There is a high probability of a decline in demand, and the supply does not decrease accordingly, so there is a risk of inventory accumulation. Hold short positions cautiously and pay attention to the spread structure and polysilicon production. If the polysilicon production increases, it is beneficial for the arbitrage of buying industrial silicon and shorting polysilicon [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: The supply is gradually recovering, the demand has no obvious growth, and the inventory is under pressure after the maintenance. Continue to hold previous short positions and track the implementation of maintenance [7]. - Glass: It still faces over - supply pressure, and the price may continue to be under pressure. Adopt a short - term bearish strategy and wait for more cold - repair implementation to bring a real reversal [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - Yunnan Guofu all - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose from 13,750 to 13,850, an increase of 0.73%. The all - latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 289.29% [2]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2.38%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 25.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 3.41% [2]. Fundamental Data - In April, Thailand's production decreased by 29.16%, Indonesia's by 7.26%, and India's by 14.34%, while China's increased by 42.30 thousand tons. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires increased by 4.12 percentage points, and that of all - steel tires decreased by 2.23 percentage points. Domestic tire production in April decreased by 5.07%, tire exports by 7.87%, and natural rubber imports by 11.93%. In May, the import of natural and synthetic rubber decreased by 12.03% [2]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.80%, and the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE increased by 23.99% [2]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The prices of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530, SI4210, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged. The basis of relevant varieties decreased, with the largest decline of 29.90% [5]. Monthly Spreads - The spreads of 2506 - 2507, 2507 - 2508, 2509 - 2510, and 2510 - 2511 increased, with the largest increase of 266.67% [5]. Fundamental Data - In April, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10%, Xinjiang's by 20.55%, Yunnan's increased by 9.35%, and Sichuan's increased by 145.65%. The national开工率 decreased by 11.37%, Xinjiang's by 22.18%, Yunnan's by 9.21%, and Sichuan's increased by 1389.80%. In May, the production of silicone DMC increased by 6.48%, polysilicon by 0.73%, and recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 0.66%. The industrial silicon export in April increased by 1.64% [5]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.15%, Yunnan's increased by 2.79%, Sichuan's increased by 0.44%, the social inventory decreased by 2.56%, the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.51%, and the non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 4.59% [5]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average prices of N - type re - feedstock, N - type granular silicon decreased by 1.37% and 1.47% respectively, while the average price of P - type cauliflower material remained unchanged. The basis of relevant materials increased, with the largest increase of 8.65% [6]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The PS2506 contract decreased by 1.96%. The spreads of PS2506 - PS2507 increased by 22.00%, while others decreased, with the largest decline of 40.85% [6]. Fundamental Data - Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 0.46%, and polysilicon production increased by 8.18%. In May, polysilicon production increased by 0.73%. In April, polysilicon imports decreased by 7.10%, exports decreased by 10.40%, silicon wafer imports decreased by 32.03%, exports increased by 28.29%, and the net export of silicon wafers increased by 42.57%. In May, the silicon wafer demand decreased by 8.10% [6]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 2.23%, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 3.40%. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The glass 2505 contract decreased by 1.37%, and the 2509 contract decreased by 1.70%. The 05 basis increased by 27.78% [7]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract decreased by 1.06%, and the 2509 contract decreased by 2.20%. The 05 basis increased by 7.43% [7]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate increased by 8.06%, the weekly soda ash production increased by 8.04%, the float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.70%, the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 1.00%, and the 3.2mm coating mainstream price decreased by 4.76% [7]. Inventory - The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.84%, the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 3.82%, the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 5.87%, and the glass factory's soda ash inventory days increased by 15.91% [7]. Real Estate Data Year - on - Year - The new construction area increased by 2.99%, the construction area decreased by 7.56%, the completion area increased by 15.67%, and the sales area increased by 12.13% [7].