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大越期货纯碱早报-20250613
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-06-13 03:21

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to mainly operate with a weak and low - level oscillation. The supply has declined from a high level, terminal demand improvement is limited, and although inventory has been decreasing, it remains at a high level compared to the same period. The industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures is 1175 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1220 yuan/ton, and the main basis is 45 yuan, with a 7.14% increase compared to the previous value [6]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - Negative Factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's output is at a historically high level. The cold - repair of float glass, a downstream product of heavy soda ash, is at a high level, and the daily melting volume has been decreasing, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Production profit: The profit of the joint - soda process for heavy soda ash in East China is 86 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda process for heavy soda ash in North China is - 10.10 yuan/ton, which is at a low level compared to the same period in history [15]. - Operating rate and production: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 80.76%, and the weekly production is 70.41 tons, with heavy soda ash production at 38.22 tons, and the production has declined from a historical high [18][20]. - Capacity changes: In 2023, the new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 750 tons, with 100 tons actually put into production [21]. - Demand - Sales - to - production ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 107.66% [24]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.68 tons, and the operating rate of 75.53% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.87 tons, and the production has stabilized [27][30]. - Inventory: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 168.63 tons, including 87.50 tons of heavy soda ash, and the inventory is at a high level compared to the same period in history [33]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand differences, and growth rates in each year [34].