大越期货白糖早报-20250613

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA predicts that in the 25/26 sugar season, global sugar production will increase by 4.7% year - on - year, consumption will grow by 1.4%, and there will be a surplus of 1.1397 billion tons. Green Pool forecasts that the global sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season will increase by 5.3% to 199.1 million tons. Dataro expects a global supply surplus of 153,000 tons in the 25/26 season. Various institutions predict that the global sugar supply and demand may be in surplus in the next year, and the price of foreign sugar will fluctuate weakly. As the price of foreign sugar remains low, the import profit window opens, and subsequent imports will increase, which will have a negative impact on domestic prices. Zhengzhou sugar will maintain a weak pattern in the medium - term, and the main 09 contract should pay short - term attention to the support level around 5600. Previous short positions can be partially liquidated for profit [4][5][9]. - Factors that are bullish for the market include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, and increased tariffs on syrup. Factors that are bearish include the increase in global sugar production, the expected global supply surplus in the new year, the foreign sugar price falling below 17 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import pressure [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant information provided. 2. Daily Hints - Bullish factors: The basis of Liuzhou spot is 483 (09 contract), with a premium over futures; as of the end of May, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar season was 3.0483 million tons; the net long position of the main contract increased, showing a bullish trend [6]. - Bearish factors: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - The domestic sugar supply - demand balance sheet shows a gap, but the medium - to - long - term gap is narrowing. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 6000 yuan per ton. Since January 1, 2025, the tariff on imported syrup and premixed powder has been adjusted from 12% to 20%, and the adjusted tariff is close to the out - of - quota import tariff for raw sugar [9]. 3. Today's Focus - No relevant information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - In 2025, as of the end of May, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, and the sales rate was 72.69% (66.17% in the same period last year). In April 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 80,000 tons year - on - year. The total import of syrup and premixed powder and other three items was 85,400 tons, a decrease of 105,500 tons year - on - year [4]. - The USDA global sugar supply - demand balance sheet shows data on beginning inventory, total sugar production, total supply, domestic consumption, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2017 to 2024 [39]. - The rural department's data shows sugar - related information such as planting area, yield, import, consumption, and price from 2023/24 to 2025/26 [42]. - The Brueck domestic sugar supply - demand balance sheet shows data on beginning inventory, production, import, domestic total supply, domestic consumption, domestic total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2017 to 2024 [44]. 5. Position Data - No relevant information provided.