Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: June 13, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Morning Report on Rebar and Hot Rolled Coils - Analyst: Hu Yuxiu from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Rebar: Demand is seasonally recovering, inventory is slightly decreasing at a low level, but traders' purchasing willingness remains weak, and the downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle. With a spot price of 3090 and a basis of 122, national inventory of 375.19 million tons (decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year), the price is below the 20 - day line which is downward, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. Considering the weak real - estate market and potential domestic policy support, a volatile and bearish approach is recommended [2]. - Hot Rolled Coils: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may be implemented. With a spot price of 3200 and a basis of 120, national inventory of 268.88 million tons (increasing month - on - month but decreasing year - on - year), the price is below the 20 - day line which is downward, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. A volatile and bearish approach is also recommended due to weakening market supply - demand and blocked exports [6]. Group 4: Factors Analysis Rebar - Likely Positive Factors: Low production and inventory levels, spot premium [3] - Likely Negative Factors: Continued downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry, weak terminal demand lower than the same period [3] Hot Rolled Coils - Likely Positive Factors: Fair demand, spot premium [8] - Likely Negative Factors: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season with a pessimistic outlook [9] Group 5: Data Indicators - Prices: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices, Southeast Asian export prices, Tangshan billet price, domestic scrap steel comprehensive price [10][13][16][17][22][25] - Profitability: Rebar and hot - rolled coil disk profit, rebar blast furnace estimated profit, construction steel electric furnace estimated profit, hot - rolled coil blast furnace estimated profit [40][43][45][48][50] - Inventory: Rebar and hot - rolled coil social and steel mill inventories [53][56][59][62] - Consumption: Rebar and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption, consumption year - on - year, comparison with the same - period average, inventory - to - consumption ratio [65][66][67][68][70][71][72][73] - Others: Building materials trading volume, real - estate development investment and sales area (cumulative year - on - year), housing new construction, construction and completion area (cumulative year - on - year), manufacturing PMI, steel monthly export data, cement price [74][77][79][81][84][87]
大越期货螺卷早报-20250613
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-06-13 03:21