甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250613

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, high imports are being realized, inventory accumulation has begun, and the market is undervalued. It is in a period of negative factor realization, and the actual inventory accumulation situation should be monitored. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine, but due to the low valuation, it is advisable to consider long - position when the price is low [1]. - For polyethylene, the overall inventory is neutral, the 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. The external market in Europe, the US, and Southeast Asia is stable. The import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. The number of maintenance in June has decreased month - on - month, and the domestic linear production has increased. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotations, as well as the new device commissioning in 2025 [5]. - For polypropylene, the upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is +100, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around - 1000, and the supply in June is expected to increase slightly. If exports continue to grow or there are more PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated [5]. - For PVC, the basis has strengthened. The downstream has a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. The mid - upstream inventory is continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to new production commissioning and export sustainability in June. The current static inventory is at a high level but decreasing, and the downstream performance is average. Macro factors are neutral, and attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, etc. [9]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Categories Methanol - Price Data: From June 6 to June 12, the power - coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price increased by 12, the South China spot price by 10, and the Lunan converted - to - futures price by 7. The import profit remained unchanged, the main - contract basis decreased by 13, and the MTO profit on the futures market decreased by 15 [1]. - Viewpoint: High imports are realized, inventory is accumulating, and the market is undervalued. Iran has reduced its production, while non - Iranian production has increased, and the domestic supply has also risen. It is in a negative factor realization period, and the actual inventory accumulation should be monitored. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine, but it is advisable to consider long - position when the price is low [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - Price Data: From June 6 to June 12, the Northeast - Asia ethylene price remained unchanged, the East - China LL price increased by 15, and the main - contract futures price increased by 15. The basis decreased by 20 [5]. - Viewpoint: The overall inventory is neutral, the 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. The external market in Europe, the US, and Southeast Asia is stable. The import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. The number of maintenance in June has decreased month - on - month, and the domestic linear production has increased. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotations, as well as the new device commissioning in 2025 [5]. Polypropylene (PP) - Price Data: From June 6 to June 12, the Shandong propylene price remained unchanged, the East - China PP price increased by 30, and the main - contract futures price increased by 9. The basis decreased by 10, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 2500 [5]. - Viewpoint: The upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is +100, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around - 1000, and the supply in June is expected to increase slightly. If exports continue to grow or there are more PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated [5]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - Price Data: From June 6 to June 12, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained unchanged, the East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC price increased by 10 [8][9]. - Viewpoint: The basis has strengthened. The downstream has a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. The mid - upstream inventory is continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to new production commissioning and export sustainability in June. The current static inventory is at a high level but decreasing, and the downstream performance is average. Macro factors are neutral, and attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, etc. [9].