有色早报-20250613

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper is expected to remain high and fluctuate due to the support from fundamentals and inventory, with low global visible inventory and resilient consumption [1]. - Aluminum has a short - term decent fundamental situation, but attention should be paid to demand. The monthly positive spread can be held if the absolute price drops [1]. - Zinc maintains the idea of short - allocation, and the long - short spread between domestic and foreign markets and the monthly reverse spread can be held [4]. - For nickel, continue to focus on the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio, with a generally average short - term real - world fundamental situation [8]. - Stainless steel is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a generally weak fundamental situation [12]. - Lead is expected to oscillate between 16400 - 16700 next week, with supply expected to be flat and demand weak in June [16]. - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities in the medium term, with a co - existence of supply disturbances and consumption decline expectations [19]. - Industrial silicon may face large potential supply pressure in the future, and its price is expected to bottom - out based on the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers in the long - term [21]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to decline after oscillation, with high supply elasticity in the future and weak short - term downstream demand [23]. Summary by Metals Copper - Market Data: From June 6th to 12th, the Shanghai copper spot price changed by 5, the premium changed by - 113, and the LME inventory decreased by 2600 [1]. - Market Analysis: Overseas, LME cash - 3m structure steepened due to concentrated cancellation of LME warrants in the eurozone. Domestically, the export window is close to opening, and inventories are gradually accumulating. The global visible inventory of copper is on a downward trend, and consumption remains resilient [1]. Aluminum - Market Data: From June 6th to 12th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 260, and the LME inventory decreased by 2000 [1]. - Market Analysis: Supply has slightly increased, and demand is expected to seasonally weaken in June. There is still a supply - demand gap, and inventory reduction is gentle from June to July [1]. Zinc - Market Data: From June 6th to 12th, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 10, and the LME inventory decreased by 550 [1][3]. - Market Analysis: Supply has increased in June, demand elasticity is limited, domestic social inventory is slightly accumulating, and overseas LME inventory has a downward trend [4]. Nickel - Market Data: From June 6th to 12th, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 850, and the LME inventory increased by 126 [8]. - Market Analysis: Supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, overseas nickel plate inventory is stable, and domestic inventory has slightly decreased [8]. Stainless Steel - Market Data: From June 6th to 12th, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of scrap stainless steel decreased by 20 [12]. - Market Analysis: Supply increased seasonally in April and decreased passively in late May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has slightly increased [12]. Lead - Market Data: From June 6th to 12th, the LME inventory decreased by 4775 [15]. - Market Analysis: Supply side has issues such as weak scrap volume and tight raw materials. Demand side has high battery inventory and weak consumption. The price is expected to oscillate between 16400 - 16700 next week [16]. Tin - Market Data: From June 6th to 12th, the LME inventory remained unchanged [19]. - Market Analysis: Supply is affected by the non - resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State and the war on the Myanmar - Thailand border. Demand is limited, and short - term supply and demand are both weak [19]. Industrial Silicon - Market Data: From June 6th to 12th, the basis of 421 in Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 105, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [21]. - Market Analysis: The overall market start - up has slightly increased, short - term supply and demand have both decreased, and future supply may face large pressure [21]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Data: From June 6th to 12th, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 150, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 454 [23]. - Market Analysis: The price is oscillating at a low level, downstream demand is weak, and the market is expected to decline after oscillation [23].