《黑色》日报-20250613

Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Current building materials are reducing production and inventory, while plates are reducing production and increasing inventory. The demand for plates is showing a clear downward trend, and the difference lies in the decline range of demand. - With the suspension of domestic subsidies and the reduction of internal competition in the auto industry, the later - stage demand expectation remains weak. - This month, iron ore shipments are surging, and iron ore inventory is approaching the inflection point of inventory accumulation, which is unfavorable for the rebound of ferrous metals. - Considering the weakening expectation of actual demand, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds, and hold short positions for now [1]. Iron Ore - In the short term, there is obvious pressure on the upside of iron ore prices, mainly due to the high - level decline of hot metal, supply increase, and administrative reduction expectations, but the short - term decline of hot metal is limited. - In the medium - to - long term, the bearish view on the 09 contract remains unchanged. With the risk of weakening demand in the off - season, the iron ore price range may move down, with the reference range of 720 - 670 [4]. Coke - The spot fundamentals of coke are still relatively loose, and the expectation of a bottom - up rebound is difficult to be verified in the short term. The spot price has no rebound drive, and the futures price has fallen again. - There is an expectation of 1 - 2 more rounds of price cuts in the future. It is recommended to adopt a short - term high - selling strategy for the 2509 contract, and pay attention to risks due to increased volatility later [6]. Coking Coal - The expectation of a bottom - up rebound may be disproven, and the spot fundamentals lack a rebound drive. After the basis is repaired, the futures market will face hedging pressure again. - It is recommended to adopt a short - term high - selling strategy for the 2509 contract, and pay attention to risks due to increased volatility later [6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon has begun to increase recently. The cost side should pay attention to the change of coal prices, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [7]. Ferromanganese - The supply pressure of ferromanganese still exists. The cost side should pay attention to the change of coke prices, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Price and Spread - Most steel prices, including those of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions and contracts, have decreased. For example, the rebar spot price in East China decreased from 3110 to 3090 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 2890 yuan/ton, while the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. The profits of most steel products have increased, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 13 to 160 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average hot metal output remained unchanged at 241.8. The output of five major steel products decreased by 21.5 to 858.9 million tons, a decrease of 2.4%. The rebar output decreased by 10.9 to 207.6 million tons, a decrease of 5.0% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 9.2 to 1354.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The rebar inventory decreased by 12.4 to 558.1 million tons, a decrease of 2.2%, while the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.8 to 345.4 million tons, an increase of 1.4% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 1.5 to 8.9, a decrease of 14.7%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 14.1 to 868.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.6% [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore varieties, such as Carajás fines, PB fines, etc., have decreased. The basis of the 09 contract for different varieties has also decreased significantly, for example, the 09 contract basis of PB fines decreased from 112.6 to 59.4 [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 72.8 to 2609.3 million tons, an increase of 2.9%. The global shipment volume increased by 79.4 to 3510.4 million tons, an increase of 2.3%. The national monthly import volume increased by 917.5 to 10313.8 million tons, an increase of 9.8% [4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8. The 45 - port daily average desilting volume decreased by 12.7 to 314.0 million tons, a decrease of 3.9%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 271.1 to 7258.3 million tons, a decrease of 3.6%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 682.2 to 8601.9 million tons, a decrease of 7.3% [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 20.3 to 13846.94 million tons, an increase of 0.1%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 64.1 to 8690.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.7% [4]. Coke Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke remained unchanged. The 09 and 01 contracts of coke decreased by 28 and 26 respectively, with a decline of 2.0% and 1.9% respectively [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.5 to 65.0 million tons, a decrease of 2.2%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.14% [6]. Demand - The hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 million tons [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 15.3 to 971.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.6%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports all decreased to varying degrees [6]. Coking Coal Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi and Mongolian coking coal warehouse - receipts remained unchanged. The 09 and 01 contracts of coking coal decreased by 17 and 14 respectively, with a decline of 2.2% and 1.8% respectively [6]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 6.7 to 866.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The cleaned coal output decreased by 4.3 to 440.7 million tons, a decrease of 1.0% [6]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.5 to 65.0 million tons, a decrease of 2.2%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1% [6]. Inventory - The cleaned coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 12.5 to 284.0 million tons, an increase of 4.64%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 20.8 to 798.1 million tons, a decrease of 2.5%. The inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.1 to 774.0 million tons, an increase of 0.4% [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Price - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions and contracts have decreased. For example, the 72% FeSi ferrosilicon spot price in Inner Mongolia decreased from 5100 to 5050 yuan/ton [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions have changed slightly. The production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased from - 53.0 to - 426.5 [7]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production decreased slightly, and the production enterprise's operating rate decreased by 1.4 to 32.8, a decrease of 4.4%. The ferromanganese weekly output increased by 0.2 to 17.3 million tons, an increase of 0.9% [7]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand decreased by 0.1 to 2.0 million tons, a decrease of 3.5%. The ferromanganese demand decreased by 0.4 to 12.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.9% [7]. Inventory - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 0.2 to 7.0 million tons, an increase of 3.3%. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises of ferromanganese increased by 0.9 to 19 million tons, an increase of 5.0% [7].