大越期货天胶早报-20250613

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall situation of natural rubber is neutral, with supply starting to increase, foreign spot prices being strong, domestic inventories beginning to rise, and tire operating rates at a high level. The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, foreign spot being strong, domestic inventories rising, and tire operating rates at a high level. The basis is 265 with the spot price at 13850, showing a bullish signal. Inventories in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while those in Qingdao decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year, overall neutral. The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in shorts, showing bearish signals. The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4] Fundamentals Data Supply and Demand - Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is at a high level. The raw material price is strong, and the spot price is resistant to decline. Automobile production and sales are seasonally falling, while tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [4][6][23][26][29][32] Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on June 12. The basis widened on June 12, with the futures at a premium [8][35] Inventory - The exchange inventory and Qingdao area inventory have changed little recently. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao area inventory decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year [14][17][4] Import - The import volume is seasonally falling [20] Multi - empty Factors - Bullish factors include high downstream consumption, strong raw material prices, and resistant spot prices. Bearish factors include increased supply, increased market inventories, and a bearish external environment [6]