大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250613

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PTA: The early maintenance devices of PTA are gradually restarting, and the polyester load downstream is decreasing, weakening the support for PTA from the supply - demand side. The spot price of PTA will fluctuate weakly, while the spot basis will run strongly in the short - term due to tight spot supply, with an expected decline as supply returns. Attention should be paid to the progress of new PTA device production and changes in downstream polyester load [6]. - MEG: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the port inventory of ethylene glycol is expected to decline significantly, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang's mainstream trade tanks is likely to fall within 200,000 tons. The tradable spot of ethylene glycol in June remains tight, and the spot basis will mainly run strongly. The medium - and short - term supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is favorable, supporting its price. Attention should be paid to changes in polyester load [7]. - Influencing Factors: The maintenance season of raw materials such as PTA and ethylene glycol leads to supply contraction, with an expected inventory reduction of over 500,000 tons in the second quarter, supporting price rebounds. However, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will levy taxes on polyester products starting in 2025, increasing export costs by 8% - 12%. The average domestic polyester operating rate is 85%, with some small and medium - sized enterprises below 70%, and the inventory days of filament and staple fiber are approaching historical highs [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 No information provided in the report. 3.2每日提示 - PTA - Fundamental: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was fair, the spot basis was strong, and individual polyester suppliers made bids. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 + 220 [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,855 yuan/ton, the basis of the 09 contract is 235, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - Inventory: The inventory of PTA factories is 4.03 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 days, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - Main Position: The net long position is decreasing, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - MEG - Fundamental: On Thursday, ethylene glycol weakened and declined. The market negotiation was fair. The night - session opened higher and then fell back, with cautious buying. The market continued to be weak during the day, and the spot price dropped to around 4,315 yuan/ton in the afternoon [8]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,347 yuan/ton, the basis of the 09 contract is 113, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot, indicating a bullish signal [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 553,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,200 tons, indicating a bullish signal [8]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [8]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [8]. 3.3今日关注 No information provided in the report. 3.4基本面数据 - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the ethylene glycol production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [13]. - Price Data: It includes the spot prices of naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fibers, as well as the futures prices and basis of PTA and ethylene glycol on June 12, 2025, and their changes compared with June 11 [14]. - Inventory Data: It shows the inventory data of PTA, ethylene glycol, PET chips, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fibers, including factory inventory days and port inventory [43][45][52]. - Operating Rate Data: It shows the operating rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [54][56][58][60]. - Profit Data: It shows the processing fees of PTA, the production profits of ethylene glycol from different raw materials, and the production profits of polyester filaments and polyester staple fibers from 2022 to 2025 [62][65][67].