Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market has a neutral fundamental situation, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued recovery in the manufacturing industry. - The basis shows a premium for the spot price over the futures price, which is bullish. - Copper inventories decreased by 2600 tons to 116,850 tons on June 12, while the SHFE copper inventory increased by 1613 tons to 107,404 tons last week, presenting a neutral situation. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising, which is bullish. - The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish. - With the Fed slowing down interest rate cuts, high - level inventory destocking, and increased uncertainty in US trade tariffs, copper prices are expected to fluctuate mainly. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamental analysis: The manufacturing industry is in a recovery trend, smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy is relaxed, resulting in a neutral situation [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 79,040 with a basis of 430, indicating a premium for the spot over the futures, which is bullish [2]. - Inventory: Copper inventory decreased on June 12, while SHFE inventory increased last week, a neutral situation [2]. - Disk: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising, bullish [2]. - Main positions: Net short positions with an increase in shorts, bearish [2]. - Expectation: Copper prices will mainly fluctuate due to factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut slowdown, high - level inventory destocking, and US trade tariff uncertainty [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, with no clear indication of specific bullish or bearish factors [3]. Spot No specific data analysis provided, only the form of spot price, price change, and inventory information is shown [6]. Exchange Inventory - Copper inventory decreased by 2600 tons to 116,850 tons on June 12, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 1613 tons to 107,404 tons last week [2]. Bonded Area Inventory Bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee The processing fee has declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight - balance state. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 - 2024 [19][21].
大越期货沪铜早报-20250613
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-06-13 03:39