大越期货豆粕早报2025-06-13-20250613

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report For Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean meal may return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. The M2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 3020 and 3080. The US soybean planting weather and Sino - US tariff negotiations are the main factors affecting the market. Although the weather in the US soybean - producing areas is variable, the abundant harvest of South American soybeans and the recent good planting weather in the US limit the upside of the US soybean price. Additionally, the increasing arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans in China restricts the rebound of the domestic soybean meal price [8]. For Soybeans - The domestic soybean market is also affected by multiple factors. The A2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4140 and 4240. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price floor, while the abundant harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production limit the price rebound [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - The domestic soybean meal and soybean markets are both in a state of shock, affected by factors such as US soybean prices, import volume, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [8][10]. 3.2 Recent News - The Sino - US tariff negotiation reached a short - term agreement, which is positive for US soybeans. However, the good recent planting weather in the US led to a short - term decline after the US soybean futures rose. The market is waiting for further news on US soybean planting, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory rebounded from a low level, but the soybean meal inventory remained low. The soybean and soybean meal markets are in a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profit led to a low expectation of pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supported the post - festival price. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, the soybean meal market entered a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors For Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas. - Bearish factors: the total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will reach a high in June, and the abundant harvest of South American soybeans is expected to continue [13]. For Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the price floor of domestic soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production, suppress the price [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Inventory: The inventory of oil - mill soybean meal was 382,500 tons, an increase of 28.36% from last week's 298,000 tons and a decrease of 65.19% compared with the same period last year. The oil - mill soybean inventory continued to rise [8][43]. - Price: The spot price of soybean meal in East China was 2850, with a basis of - 199, indicating a discount to the futures. The price of soybean meal futures was oscillating strongly, while the spot price was relatively weak after May Day, and the discount slightly widened. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market continued to narrow, and the price difference of the 2509 contract remained oscillating [8][22][27]. - Supply and demand: The domestic purchase of soybean meal by downstream enterprises decreased from a high level, but the pick - up volume remained good. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained high, but the soybean meal output in April decreased year - on - year [25][46]. 3.5 Position Data - The long positions of the main players in the soybean meal market increased, and the funds flowed in [8].