大越期货菜粕早报2025-06-13-20250613

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2620 - 2680. The market is influenced by factors such as good demand expectations, low inventory, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile with a slight upward bias, but will return to range - bound trading due to factors like the inventory of imported rapeseed and the influence of soybean meal [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate between 2620 and 2680. The fundamental situation shows that the demand is expected to be good, and the low inventory of rapeseed meal in oil mills supports the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal in the spot market has entered the peak season. Although the import volume of rapeseed has increased, the inventory of oil mills is not under pressure in the short term. The price is expected to be volatile with a slight upward bias in the short term. However, the impact of the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is limited as there is no tariff on rapeseed imports [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, and the supply in the spot market is tight while demand is rising. The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has decreased slightly, which supports the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. The global rapeseed output has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU production and lower - than - expected output in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the geopolitical conflict may still rise, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. Bearish factors: The increase in the arrival volume of imported rapeseed after March; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and Basis: The spot price is 2560, and the basis is - 134, indicating a discount to the futures, which is bearish. - Inventory: The rapeseed meal inventory is 19,000 tons, a 5% week - on - week decrease from last week's 20,000 tons and a 32.14% year - on - year decrease from last year's 28,000 tons, which is bullish. - Market Trend: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards, which is bullish [9]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions have decreased, but the capital has flowed in, which is bullish [9]. 4. Other Data - Trading Data: From June 3 to June 12, the trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed fluctuations. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated during this period [13]. - Price Data: The futures and spot prices of rapeseed meal from June 4 to June 12 showed an upward trend overall. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian increased from 2460 to 2560 during this period [14]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: From May 30 to June 12, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased continuously [15]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023 show the changes in various indicators such as inventory, output, and consumption over the years [23][24]. - Import Data: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in June was lower than expected, and the import cost showed a strong and volatile trend. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills stopped falling and rebounded, the rapeseed meal inventory decreased slightly, and the rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills increased slightly [25][28][30]. - Aquaculture Production and Price: The production of Chinese aquatic products, fish, shellfish, and shrimp - crabs is mentioned, and the price of aquatic fish has rebounded slightly while the price of shrimp - shellfish has remained stable [32][34][38].