大越期货沥青期货早报2025年6月13日-20250613

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are slightly positive. The supply pressure is increasing as refineries have increased production recently, while the overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. The inventory is continuously decreasing, and the strengthening of crude oil prices provides short - term cost support. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3501 - 3553 [8][10]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: In June 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt is 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 32.2987%, a month - on - month increase of 3.655 percentage points. The sample enterprises' output is 539,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.76%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 738,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.40%. Refineries have increased production, raising supply pressure, and it may further increase next week [8]. - Demand Side: The operating rates of various types of asphalt, such as heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, and road - modified asphalt, are generally lower than the historical average levels. Although the operating rate of waterproofing membranes has increased, the overall demand is still below the historical average [8]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 474.54 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.10%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 671.8557 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.19%. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [9]. - Inventory: On June 12, the social inventory is 1.351 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29%; the in - plant inventory is 797,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.08%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 390,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60.00%. Social and in - plant inventories are decreasing, while port inventory is increasing [11]. - Basis: On June 12, the spot price in Shandong is 3725 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 198 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [11]. - Expected Outlook: The refinery's recent production increase raises supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish during the peak season. The inventory is continuously decreasing. The strengthening of crude oil provides short - term cost support. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3501 - 3553 [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - Basis Trend: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, which helps to understand the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [20][21]. - Spread Analysis: - Main Contract Spread: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is useful for spread trading analysis [23][24]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, showing the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [26][27]. - Crude Oil Cracking Spread: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, reflecting the profitability of asphalt production from crude oil [29][30][31]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the relative price relationships among different products [33][34]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis The report shows the historical trends of the market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in the East China and Shandong regions from 2020 to 2025, which helps to understand the price fluctuations in the spot market [36][37]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: - Asphalt Profit: The historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the profitability of asphalt production [39][40]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: The historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is related to the production choice between asphalt and coking products [42][43][44]. - Supply - Side Analysis: - Shipment Volume: The historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 are presented, reflecting the market supply situation [45][46]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 are shown, which is an important part of the asphalt supply [47][48]. - Production Volume: The historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the overall supply capacity [50][51]. - Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: The historical trends of the Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which are related to the raw material supply of asphalt production [54][56]. - Refinery Asphalt Production: The historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the production situation of refineries [57][59]. - Operating Rate: The historical trends of the weekly operating rate of asphalt from 2023 to 2025 are presented, reflecting the production activity level [60][61]. - Maintenance Loss Estimation: The historical trends of the maintenance loss estimation of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which affects the actual supply [63][64]. - Inventory Analysis: - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which is related to the market's deliverable inventory [66][67][68]. - Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory: The historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 are shown, reflecting the inventory situation at different locations [71][72]. - In - Plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio: The historical trends of the in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the inventory management of refineries [74][75]. - Import and Export Situation: - Export and Import Trends: The historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the international trade situation of asphalt [77][78]. - South Korean Asphalt Import Price Difference Trend: The historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which affects the competitiveness of imported asphalt [80][81][82]. - Demand - Side Analysis: - Petroleum Coke Production: The historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which is related to the demand for related products in the asphalt industry [83][84]. - Apparent Consumption: The historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 are presented, reflecting the overall market demand [86][87]. - Downstream Demand: - Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment: The historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which is an important factor affecting asphalt demand [89][90]. - New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year: The historical trends of new local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which also affect asphalt demand [91]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: The historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2020 to 2025 are presented, reflecting the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [93][94][96]. - Asphalt Operating Rate: - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate: The historical trends of the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the production activity level of heavy - traffic asphalt [98][99]. - Asphalt Operating Rate by Use: The historical trends of the building asphalt operating rate and modified asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 are shown, reflecting the production situation of different types of asphalt [101][102]. - Downstream Operating Situation: The historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which are related to the demand for asphalt in different downstream industries [103][104][106]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to June 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data, which helps to comprehensively understand the market's supply - demand relationship [108][109].