Report Industry Investment Rating The provided reports do not mention industry investment ratings. Core Views Nickel - Yesterday, the Shanghai nickel futures market weakened, with the main contract breaking below the 120,000 support level. Macro - wise, the news was relatively calm, and the policy remained uncertain. The market expected the Fed to cut interest rates in the second half of the year. On the industrial side, spot prices fell, and trading was mediocre. In the medium - term, supply was expected to be loose, and the market was likely to fluctuate within the range of 118,000 - 126,000 [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market showed narrow - range fluctuations. The market sentiment improved slightly, but high - price resources had weak trading. The supply was at a relatively high level, and the demand was slowly recovering. The market was expected to fluctuate weakly within the range of 12,400 - 13,000 [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market declined significantly. The fundamentals were under pressure, and the market sentiment was weak. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was difficult to boost. The market was expected to run weakly within the range of 56,000 - 62,000 [5]. Tin - Tin was in a "strong reality, weak expectation" situation. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was expected to be weak. After the sentiment stabilized, a short - selling strategy was recommended [6]. Aluminum Oxide - The supply of aluminum oxide was expected to increase, and the market was likely to turn relatively loose. The spot price was expected to fluctuate weakly, with the lower reference cash cost at 2,700 [7]. Aluminum - The low inventory and low warehouse receipts supported the short - term aluminum price, and it was difficult for the price to decline unilaterally. However, due to factors such as increased tariffs and weakening demand, the domestic aluminum price still faced pressure, with the lower support at 19,000 [7]. Zinc - The zinc market had a long - term supply - side easing cycle. The supply side was expected to be loose, and the demand side might weaken after the peak season. The price was expected to be in the range of 21,000 - 23,000 [9]. Copper - Copper was in a "strong reality + weak expectation" situation. The strong fundamentals restricted price drops, while the weak macro - expectations limited the upside. The price was expected to fluctuate within the range of 78,000 - 80,000 [12]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Nickel: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 121,900 yuan/ton, down 0.65%; 1 Jinchuan nickel was at 122,925 yuan/ton, down 0.75%. The LME 0 - 3 was at - 196 dollars/ton, down 0.97%. The futures import loss was - 2,759 yuan/ton, a reduction of 18.78% [1]. - Stainless Steel: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was at 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) was at 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot - futures price difference was 385 yuan/ton, up 4.05% [4]. - Lithium Carbonate: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was at 60,650 yuan/ton, up 0.25%; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate was at 59,050 yuan/ton, up 0.25% [5]. - Tin: SMM 1 tin was at 265,300 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; SMM 1 tin premium was at 1,100 yuan/ton, down 8.33% [6]. - Aluminum: SMM A00 aluminum was at 20,650 yuan/ton, up 1.23%; Yangtze River A00 aluminum was at 20,680 yuan/ton, up 1.27% [7]. - Zinc: SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 22,310 yuan/ton, up 0.04%; SMM 0 zinc ingot (Guangdong) was at 22,330 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [9]. - Copper: SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 79,075 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper was at 79,010 yuan/ton, down 0.37% [12]. Production Cost - Nickel: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel was 126,132 yuan/ton, down 0.49%; the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte to produce electrolytic nickel was 133,478 yuan/ton, up 1.05% [1]. New Energy Material Prices - Battery - grade nickel sulfate was at 27,815 yuan/ton, unchanged; battery - grade lithium carbonate was at 60,200 yuan/ton, down 0.08%; cobalt sulfate (≥20.5%/domestic) was at 48,375 yuan/ton, down 0.57% [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - Nickel: 2507 - 2508 was at - 220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; 2508 - 2509 was at - 120 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1]. - Stainless Steel: 2507 - 2508 was at - 40 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; 2508 - 2509 was at 20 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [4]. - Lithium Carbonate: 2507 - 2508 was at - 100 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; 2507 - 2509 was at - 60 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton [5]. - Tin: 2506 - 2507 was at 50 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; 2507 - 2508 was at 230 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [6]. - Aluminum: 2506 - 2507 was at 130 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; 2507 - 2508 was at 5 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton [7]. - Zinc: 2506 - 2507 was at 290 yuan/ton, unchanged; 2507 - 2508 was at 255 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [9]. - Copper: 2506 - 2507 was at 290 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan/ton; 2507 - 2508 was at 160 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [12]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - Nickel: China's refined nickel production was 35,350 tons, down 2.62%; refined nickel imports were 8,832 tons, up 8.18%. SHFE inventory was 27,075 tons, up 0.45%; social inventory was 41,553 tons, down 1.97%; LME inventory was 197,634 tons, up 0.06% [1]. - Stainless Steel: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36%; stainless - steel imports were 14.21 million tons, up 10.26%; exports were 44.78 million tons, down 4.85%. 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 53.08 million tons, up 2.04% [4]. - Lithium Carbonate: In May, lithium carbonate production was 72,080 tons, down 2.34%; demand was 93,938 tons, up 4.81%. In April, imports were 28,336 tons, up 56.33%; exports were 734 tons, up 233.72%. Total inventory in May was 97,637 tons, up 1.49% [5]. - Tin: In April, tin ore imports were 9,861 tons, up 18.48%; SMM refined tin production in May was 14,840 tons, down 2.37%. In April, refined tin imports were 1,128 tons, down 46.31%; exports were 1,637 tons, down 2.15%. SHEF inventory was 7,372 tons, down 9.07%; social inventory was 8,856 tons, down 2.38% [6]. - Aluminum: In May, aluminum oxide production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66%; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41%. China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 46.00 million tons, down 8.73%; LME inventory was 35.8 million tons, down 0.64% [7]. - Zinc: In May, refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08%; in April, imports were 2.82 million tons, up 2.40%; exports were 0.25 million tons, up 75.76%. China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory was 7.71 million tons, down 2.77%; LME inventory was 13.3 million tons, down 1.47% [9]. - Copper: In May, electrolytic copper production was 113.83 million tons, up 1.12%; in April, imports were 25.00 million tons, down 19.06%. Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 74.73 million tons, down 6.11%; electrolytic copper rod - making capacity utilization was 73.21%, down 1.66%. Domestic social inventory was 14.48 million tons, down 2.69%; bonded - area inventory was 5.97 million tons, up 2.93%; SHFE inventory was 10.74 million tons, up 1.52%; LME inventory was 11.69 million tons, down 2.18%; COMEX inventory was 19.21 million short tons, up 0.60% [12].
广发期货《有色》日报-20250613
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-06-13 05:22