Overview - The report is a weekly report on the synthetic rubber market, covering aspects such as market trends, industrial conditions, and downstream demand [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of domestic butadiene rubber futures rebounded, and the ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber from mainstream sales companies increased by 200 yuan/ton. As of June 12, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was between 11,600 - 11,700 yuan/ton [7] - The supply of raw material butadiene is relatively sufficient, and the cost support for butadiene rubber production has weakened. Recently, many domestic butadiene rubber producers have carried out maintenance and shutdowns. Some traders have placed orders for replenishment, but the lack of actual positive factors has led to difficulties in shipping. The inventory of producers has slightly decreased, while the inventory of trading enterprises has increased [7] - In terms of demand, the production schedules of previously shut - down enterprises have gradually returned to normal levels. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased on a week - on - week basis. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises will fluctuate slightly in the short term [7] - The br2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,700 - 11,300 in the short term [7] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Market Trend: The price of domestic butadiene rubber futures rebounded, and the ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber increased by 200 yuan/ton [7] - Market Outlook: Raw material supply is sufficient, cost support weakens. Producer inventory decreases slightly, trader inventory increases. Tire enterprise capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly [7] - Strategy Recommendation: The br2508 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,700 - 11,300 [7] 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price Trend: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up, with a weekly increase of 0.49% [11] - Spread: As of June 13, the 7 - 8 spread of butadiene rubber was 180 [18] - Warehouse Receipts: As of June 13, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 5,170 tons, a decrease of 730 tons from last week [21] Spot Market - Price: As of June 12, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from last week [26] - Basis: As of June 12, the basis of butadiene rubber was 515 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton from last week [26] 3. Industrial Conditions Upstream - Naphtha and Ethylene Prices: As of June 12, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 584.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 27.2 dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 790 dollars/ton, an increase of 10 dollars/ton from last week [29] - Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Inventory: As of June 13, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.98%, an increase of 0.96% from last week; the port inventory was 21,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from last week [32] Industry - Production and Capacity Utilization: In May 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 139,400 tons, an increase of 17,900 tons from the previous month. As of June 12, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 65.03%, a decrease of 2.22% from last week [36] - Production Profit: As of June 12, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was - 576 yuan/ton, an increase of 306 yuan/ton from last week [39] - Inventory: As of June 13, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 33,800 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons from last week; the producer inventory was 27,650 tons, a decrease of 650 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 6,210 tons, an increase of 530 tons from last week [43] Downstream - Tire Capacity Utilization: As of June 12, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a week - on - week increase of 5.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.00 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 58.70%, a week - on - week increase of 3.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.95 percentage points [46] - Tire Exports: In April 2025, China's tire exports were 696,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.14% and a year - on - year increase of 6.11%. From January to April, the cumulative tire exports were 2,645,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.01% [49]
合成橡胶市场周报-20250613
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-13 10:06