Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroscopically, the May global manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month but below 50% for three consecutive months. The Sino-US economic and trade consultations may improve market sentiment. The World Bank has lowered the global GDP growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3%. - In terms of supply and demand, the capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines has declined for five consecutive weeks, and the cumulative import growth rate has decreased year-on-year. The total inventory has dropped, with obvious inventory accumulation at the mine end. The weak reality is still dominated by off - season expectations. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the coking coal main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend. - The coking coal main contract is expected to fluctuate. The short - term technical oversold rebound and the repair of market pessimism are expected, but the downstream steel demand is under pressure in the off - season, and coke is facing a third round of price cuts [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 187.8 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons week - on - week. The daily average output of 110 coal washing plants was 47.79 tons, a decrease of 3.67 tons. The total coking coal inventory was 1773.8 tons, a decrease of 35.02 tons week - on - week and an increase of 0.56% year - on - year. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 46 yuan/ton. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.44%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 8.66 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot metal output was 241.61 tons, a decrease of 0.19 tons week - on - week and an increase of 2.30 tons year - on - year [7]. - Market Outlook: Macroscopically, the Sino - US economic and trade consultations may improve market sentiment. Overseas, the World Bank has lowered the global GDP growth forecast. In terms of supply and demand, there are signs of marginal improvement in supply. Technically, the weekly K - line is bearish. It is recommended to treat the coking coal main contract as a fluctuating operation [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of June 13, the coking coal futures contract open interest was 688,900 lots, an increase of 8,796 lots week - on - week. The spread between the 1 - 9 contracts of coking coal was 13.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50 yuan/ton week - on - week. As of June 6, the registered coking coal warehouse receipts were 0 lots, a decrease of 100 lots week - on - week. As of June 13, the spread between the main contracts of coke and coking coal was 575.0, an increase of 3 points week - on - week [14][18]. - Spot Market: As of June 12, 2025, the coke closing price at Rizhao Port was 1,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton week - on - week; the ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. As of June 13, the coking coal basis was 213.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29.50 yuan/ton week - on - week [24]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - Coal Mine and Coal Washing Plant: The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 83.7%, a decrease of 0.9% week - on - week. The daily average output of raw coal was 187.8 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons week - on - week, and the raw coal inventory was 684.9 tons, an increase of 14.1 tons week - on - week. The daily average output of clean coal was 74.1 tons, a decrease of 0.5 tons week - on - week, and the clean coal inventory was 486.0 tons, an increase of 5.3 tons week - on - week. The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 57.36%, a decrease of 3.23% week - on - week; the daily average output was 47.79 tons, a decrease of 3.67 tons week - on - week; the raw coal inventory was 336.13 tons, an increase of 8.72 tons week - on - week; the clean coal inventory was 251.47 tons, an increase of 6.41 tons week - on - week [30]. - Coking Enterprises: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 73.96%, a decrease of 0.97%. The daily average coke output was 52.17 tons, a decrease of 0.93 tons, and the coke inventory was 87.31 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons. The total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) was 1773.8 tons, a decrease of 35.02 tons week - on - week and an increase of 0.56% year - on - year [34]. - Port Inventory: As of June 13, the inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 544.73 tons, a decrease of 1.00 tons; the coke inventory at 18 ports was 258.69 tons, a decrease of 8.16 tons. The hot metal output has declined from a high level, and the steel mills are making low - volume purchases for rigid demand replenishment, resulting in a seasonal decline in the inventory of coking coal and coke at ports [38]. - Downstream Steel Mills: As of June 12, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 241.61 tons, a decrease of 0.19 tons week - on - week and an increase of 2.30 tons year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.44%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 8.66 percentage points year - on - year [44]. - National Production: From January to April, the national raw coal output reached 1.585 billion tons, an increase of 10.895 million tons year - on - year, a growth of 6.6%. In April 2025, the national raw coal output was 389 million tons, a year - on - year growth of 3.8%, and the growth rate slowed down by 5.8 percentage points compared with March. In April 2025, the coking coal output in China was 4.16147 million tons, a year - on - year growth of 8.23% [52]. - Import Situation: In 2024, China's coal imports reached 540 million tons, a year - on - year growth of 14.4%, setting a new record. Among them, the cumulative import of coking coal was 12.1895 million tons, a year - on - year growth of 19.62%. From January to April 2025, the total import of coking coal in China was 3.64089 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.09% [56].
焦煤市场周报:中美经贸磋商会议,供应改善价格震荡-20250613
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-13 10:05