工业硅多晶硅市场周报：双硅价格大幅分歧，多晶硅价格弱支撑-20250613

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an industrial silicon and polysilicon market weekly report, covering the period from June 5th to June 13th, 2025 [2] - It provides an analysis of the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets, including price trends, supply and demand, and inventory levels - Recommendations for trading strategies are also given Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Industrial silicon prices rose 0.75% this week, with the market sentiment warming up as it approached the cash - cost price of large manufacturers. However, the 07 contract is expected to have limited performance next week, while the 08 contract has seen a significant increase in short positions [7] - Polysilicon prices fell 3.01% this week, continuing the previous week's decline due to the bankruptcy of US energy storage companies and the subsequent decline in downstream photovoltaic prices [7] - In the industrial silicon market, supply is increasing as Yunnan and Sichuan enter the rainy season, and demand from downstream industries shows a flat trend overall. The large number of warehouse receipts has brought significant delivery pressure to the market [7] - In the polysilicon market, supply is decreasing as all manufacturers are operating at reduced capacity, and demand is weak due to factors such as reduced downstream photovoltaic component production and high inventory levels [7] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Performance: Industrial silicon rose 0.75% this week, while polysilicon fell 3.01% [7] - Supply - Demand Analysis: For industrial silicon, supply is increasing as large enterprises ramp up production during the rainy season, and downstream demand from organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy shows a flat trend. For polysilicon, supply is decreasing as manufacturers operate at reduced capacity, and demand is weak due to factors such as reduced downstream production and high inventory [7] - Trading Recommendations: Industrial silicon's main contract is expected to trade in a range of 6800 - 7800, with a stop - loss range of 6500 - 8000. Polysilicon's main contract is expected to trade in a range of 32500 - 39000, with a stop - loss range of 32000 - 42000 [7] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Price Trends: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices fell this week. Industrial silicon's spot price was flat, and its basis weakened. Polysilicon's spot price decreased, and its basis also weakened [8][13][17] - Futures Market: Industrial silicon's production and capacity utilization increased this week, with a national production of about 70,600 tons and a capacity utilization rate of 48.62% [21][22] 3. Industry Situation - Raw Materials: Industrial silicon raw material prices fell, and most manufacturers' production costs were not supported [25] - Inventory: Industrial silicon's warehouse receipts and social inventory decreased this week, but the overall inventory pressure remained high [30][32] - Downstream Industries: - Organic silicon production and operating rates increased, but its profit decreased due to falling spot prices. It is expected that production will continue to increase [35][39][41] - Aluminum alloy prices fell, and inventory increased, making it difficult to drive industrial silicon demand [47][49] - Silicon wafer prices fell, which dragged down polysilicon demand. Battery cell prices were flat, and demand was unclear [54][56] - Cost and Production: Polysilicon's production cost remained flat, and its production is expected to decline gradually. In May 2025, China's polysilicon production was 97,355 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59% [60][62]