焦炭市场周报：情绪改善原料支撑，现货三轮提降落地-20250613

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The debt replacement policy continues to release its effectiveness, and the Sino-US economic and trade consultations improve market sentiment. However, the weak reality of the coke market remains a major contradiction, with the third round of price cuts implemented and the downstream steel demand under pressure during the off - season. The coke main contract is expected to move in a volatile manner [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Macro Aspect: By the end of May, over 1.6 trillion yuan of replacement bonds had been issued, completing over 80% of the 2 - trillion - yuan quota for replacing existing implicit debts. In May, Zhejiang and Sichuan issued special bonds for purchasing existing commercial housing. Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism during his visit to the UK from June 8th to 13th [7]. - Overseas Aspect: The latest US CPI data is ideal. Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates by one percentage point and warned of potential increases in auto tariffs [7]. - Supply - Demand Aspect: There are signs of marginal improvement in raw material supply, and the molten iron output has declined from its peak. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 46 yuan/ton, and the third round of price cuts for coke has been implemented [7]. - Technical Aspect: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend in the weekly chart [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: Considering the macro - level sentiment improvement, marginal improvement in raw material supply, and the third - round price cut of coke, along with the weak downstream steel demand in the off - season, the coke main contract should be treated as a volatile operation [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market: As of June 13th, the coke futures contract open interest was 572,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 23 lots. The coke 1 - 9 contract spread was 17.00 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.50 yuan/ton. The registered coke warehouse receipts were 90 lots, a week - on - week increase of 10 lots, and the futures screw - coke ratio was 2.2, remaining unchanged from the previous week [11][16]. - Spot Market: As of June 12th, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port was 1340 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan/ton. The coking coal ex - factory price in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 980 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. As of June 13th, the coke basis was 11.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 56.50 yuan/ton [22]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - Industry Situation: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 73.96%, a decrease of 0.97%. The daily average coke output was 52.17, a decrease of 0.93, and the coke inventory was 87.31, a decrease of 1.1. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 46 yuan/ton [29]. - Downstream Situation: As of June 12th, the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 241.61 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 tons but a year - on - year increase of 2.30 tons. As of June 6th, 2025, the total coke inventory (independent coking plants + 4 major ports + steel mills) was 940.31 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.51 tons and a year - on - year increase of 19.43% [33]. - Inventory Structure: The port inventory has declined from its peak, and the steel mill inventory has decreased seasonally. As of June 13th, the imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports was 544.73, a decrease of 1.00, and the coke inventory at 18 ports was 258.69, a decrease of 8.16. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 642.84, a decrease of 2.96, and the available days of coke were 11.62 days, an increase of 0.04 days [38]. - Fundamental Data: From January to April 2025, the coke export volume was 232,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30.40%. In May 2025, China exported 1.0578 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 11,600 tons or 1.1%. From January to May, the cumulative steel export volume was 4.8469 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. In April 2025, the second - hand housing price index in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.40% month - on - month. As of the week ending June 8th, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.4172 million square meters, a week - on - week decrease of 33.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.14%. The commercial housing transaction area in first - tier cities was 411,100 square meters, a week - on - week decrease of 30.71% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.71%. The commercial housing transaction area in second - tier cities was 670,300 square meters, a week - on - week decrease of 36.70% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.75% [42][45][51].