棉花（纱）市场周报：宏观因素支撑，但消费需求疲软-20250613

Group 1: Report Summary - The weekly gain of Zhengzhou Cotton's main 2509 contract was about 1.1%, and the weekly gain of the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract was about 0.43% [6][19] - The USDA lowered the production and inventory estimates of US cotton, which had a bullish impact on cotton and narrowed the decline of US cotton [6] - The consumption off - season characteristics of the textile industry are evident, with poor new orders and some spinning mills having relatively high inventory, affecting raw material procurement [6] - Positive factors such as Sino - US trade talks and the USDA report support the short - term bullish oscillation of cotton prices, but it will return to fundamentals later due to weak downstream demand [6] Group 2: Future Trading Tips - Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices [7] - Monitor macro factors [7] - Keep an eye on trade policies [7] Group 3: Futures and Spot Market US Cotton Market - The price of the US cotton December contract fell, with a weekly decline of about 0.72% [9] - As of June 3, 2025, non - commercial long positions in US cotton futures decreased by 0.13% week - on - week, non - commercial short positions increased by 3.02%, and net short positions decreased by 9.79% [9] US Cotton Export and International Spot - For the week ending June 5, US cotton export sales increased by 60,200 bales, a 45% decrease from the previous week and a 51% decrease from the four - week average [15] - The international cotton spot price index was 78.5 cents per pound, up 0.64% from last week [15] Domestic Futures Market - Zhengzhou Cotton's main 2509 contract and cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose, with gains of about 1.1% and 0.43% respectively [19] - As of this week, the top 20 net positions in cotton futures were - 39,163, and in cotton yarn futures were - 63 [26] - As of this week, cotton futures warehouse receipts were 10,753, and cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 2 [32] Futures and Spot Price Differences - The price difference between Zhengzhou Cotton's 9 - 1 contract was 15 yuan per ton, and the price difference between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S spot prices was 5,458 yuan per ton [37] Spot Market - As of June 13, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,842 yuan per ton [41] - As of June 12, 2025, the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,300 yuan per ton, CY index: OEC10s was 14,540 yuan per ton, and CY index: JC40 was 23,440 yuan per ton [49] Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost - As of June 11, 2025, the 1% quota port pick - up price of the imported cotton price index (FC Index): M was 13,656 yuan per ton, down 0.76% month - on - month; the sliding - duty port pick - up price was 14,389 yuan per ton, down 0.48% month - on - month [55] - The port pick - up price of the imported cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): C32S was 20,989 yuan per ton, up 0.06% month - on - month; C21S was 20,056 yuan per ton, unchanged; JC32S was 22,950 yuan per ton, up 0.04% month - on - month [55] Imported Cotton Cost - Profit - As of June 12, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - duty port pick - up price (M) was 465 yuan per ton, and that of the 1% quota port pick - up price was 1,210 yuan per ton [59] Group 4: Industrial Chain Supply - Side: Inventory - As of May, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6939 million tons or - 16.71%, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.3154 million tons or - 8.36% [63] - As of the end of May, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 0.9411 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0131 million tons [63] Supply - Side: Imports - In April 2025, China imported about 60,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month decrease of about 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of about 82.5% [67] - From September 2024 to April 2025, China imported about 880,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of about 64.65% [67] Mid - end Industry: Demand - As of the end of May, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 22.34 days, an increase of 1.36 days from the previous month, and the grey cloth inventory was 31.2 days, an increase of 1.72 days from the previous month [71] Terminal Consumption: Demand - From January to April 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing was 649.54 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. Textile exports were 329.17 billion yuan, up 4.9%, and clothing exports were 320.37 billion yuan, down 0.5% [75] - In April 2025, textile and clothing exports were 173.44 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5% and a month - on - month increase of 3.3% [75] - As of April 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 493.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [79] Group 5: Option and Stock Market Option Market - This week, the implied volatility of at - the - money options in the cotton market was analyzed [80] Stock Market - The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. was presented [84]