沪锌市场周报：贸易担忧需求淡季，预计锌价震荡偏弱-20250613

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The zinc price is expected to be volatile and weak due to trade concerns and the off - season of demand. The operation suggestion is to wait and see temporarily or go short lightly on rallies [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated and declined this week, with a weekly increase or decrease of - 2.55% and an amplitude of 2.64%. The closing price of the main contract was 21,815 yuan/ton [4]. - Market Outlook: Macroscopically, the core PPI growth rate in the US in May hit a new low in nearly a year, and the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year has increased. Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has risen, the processing fee of zinc ore has continued to increase, and the profit of smelters has been further repaired. The supply growth has accelerated. The import window is closed, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, it is the off - season, the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year, and the subsequent export demand may shrink. Technically, the position has increased, and the short side is stronger. Attention should be paid to the support at the 21,800 mark and the pressure of MA10 [4]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or go short lightly on rallies [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: As of June 13, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai zinc was 21,815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 570 yuan/ton or 2.55% compared with June 6, 2025. As of June 12, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 2,644 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 44 US dollars/ton or 1.64% compared with June 6, 2025 [9]. - Net Position: As of June 12, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 10,776 lots, a decrease of 2,187 lots compared with June 6, 2025. As of June 13, 2025, the position of Shanghai zinc was 300,051 lots, an increase of 65,041 lots or 27.68% compared with June 6, 2025 [11]. - Price Difference: As of June 13, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price difference was 1,375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 940 yuan/ton compared with June 6, 2025. The lead - zinc futures price difference was 4,870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 735 yuan/ton compared with June 6, 2025 [16]. - Spot Premium and Discount: As of June 13, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 460 yuan/ton or 2.02% compared with June 6, 2025. The spot premium was 215 yuan/ton, a decrease compared with last week. As of June 12, 2025, the spread between the near - month and 3 - month LME zinc was - 30.36 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5.15 US dollars/ton compared with June 5, 2025 [23]. - Inventory: As of June 13, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 131,000 tons, a decrease of 5,975 tons or 4.36% compared with June 6, 2025. The SHFE refined zinc inventory was 45,466 tons, a decrease of 1,546 tons or 3.29% compared with last week. As of June 12, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 56,300 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons or 3.26% compared with June 5, 2025 [25]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Upstream: In March 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.0184 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10.19% and a year - on - year increase of 2.65%. In April 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 494,662.21 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 37.64% and a year - on - year increase of 72.63% [30]. - Supply Side: In March 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1219 million tons, a decrease of 45,600 tons or 3.91% compared with the same period last year. The global refined zinc consumption was 1.0982 million tons, a decrease of 3,400 tons or 0.31% compared with the same period last year. The global refined zinc surplus was 23,700 tons, compared with a surplus of 65,900 tons in the same period last year. In April 2025, the zinc output was 576,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. From January to April, the cumulative zinc output was 2.333 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. In April 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 28,229.21 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 38.66%, and the export volume was 2,479.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 283.56% [33][37][40]. - Downstream: - Galvanized Sheet (Strip): From January to April 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 683,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.11%. In April 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 32,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.05%, and the export volume was 404,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.73% [43][44]. - Real Estate: From January to April 2025, the newly started housing area was 178.3584 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 24.13%. The completed housing area was 156.4785 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.37%. The funds available to real estate development enterprises were 3.259564 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.1%. Among them, personal mortgage loans were 451.782 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% [47][48]. - Infrastructure Investment: From January to April 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 10.85% year - on - year. In April 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.86, a decrease of 0.09 compared with last month and an increase of 2.06 compared with the same period last year [53][52]. - Home Appliances: In April 2025, the refrigerator output was 8.179 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%. From January to April, the cumulative refrigerator output was 32.204 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. The air - conditioner output was 30.833 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. From January to April, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 105.314 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.2% [55][56]. - Automobiles: In May 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 2,686,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.14%, and the output was 2,649,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.67% [60].