玉米类市场周报：小麦政策收购提振，推动玉米同步上涨-20250613

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The USDA's downward revision of the US corn ending stocks estimates for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons is generally positive, but concerns about long - term import pressure remain due to good US corn good - to - excellent ratings and improved Sino - US trade relations. In the domestic market, the corn price is supported by factors such as slow sales in the Northeast, strong restocking demand from some processing enterprises, reduced market grain supply in the North China and Huanghuai regions, and the start of wheat procurement at the minimum purchase price in Henan [8]. - Corn starch prices are relatively strong due to reduced supply pressure from lower industry operating rates and support from firm corn prices, and the industry inventory has slightly declined [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary Corn - Strategy: Short - term trading is recommended [9]. - Market Review: This week, the corn futures fluctuated and closed higher. The closing price of the main 2507 contract was 2378 yuan/ton, an increase of 38 yuan/ton from the previous week [10]. - Market Outlook: The USDA's downward revision of ending stocks estimates is positive, but there are concerns about import pressure. In the domestic market, the Northeast sales slow down, some processing enterprises restock, and the North China and Huanghuai regions see reduced grain supply. The start of wheat procurement at the minimum purchase price in Henan supports the corn market. The recent upward trend has slowed down [10]. Corn Starch - Strategy: Short - term participation is recommended [13]. - Market Review: Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated and closed higher. The closing price of the main 2507 contract was 2703 yuan/ton, an increase of 47 yuan/ton from the previous week [14]. - Market Outlook: Due to tight raw material supply in North China and continuous losses in production, the industry operating rate has dropped to a new low this year. With reduced supply pressure and firm corn prices, the spot price of corn starch is relatively good, and the inventory has slightly declined [14]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - The corn futures July contract fluctuated upward this week, with a total position of 702,413 lots, a decrease of 261,592 lots from last week. The corn starch futures July contract also fluctuated upward, with a total position of 163,117 lots, a decrease of 49,450 lots from last week [20]. Top Twenty Net Position Changes - This week, the net position of the top twenty in corn futures was - 112,968, compared with - 86,788 last week, indicating an increase in net short positions. The net position of the top twenty in starch futures was - 8,482, compared with - 12,459 last week, indicating a decrease in net short positions [27]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 216,285 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 24,237 lots [34]. Spot Price and Basis - As of June 12, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,406.27 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active July contract and the spot average price was 28 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,820 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,940 yuan/ton, remaining relatively stable this week. The basis between the July contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 117 yuan/ton [39][43]. Futures Inter - monthly Spread - The 7 - 9 spread of corn was - 26 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 7 - 9 spread of starch was - 79 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [49]. Futures Spread - The spread between the July contract of starch and corn was 325 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton from last week [58]. Substitute Spread - As of June 12, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,430.39 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,406.27 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 24.12 yuan/ton. In the 24th week of 2025, the spread between cassava starch and corn starch changed little, with an average spread of 206 yuan/ton, a reduction of 33 yuan/ton from last week [64]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation Corn - Supply - Port Inventory: As of June 6, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 101.6 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week, and the foreign trade inventory was 0.3 tons, unchanged from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 305.9 tons, a decrease of 25.2 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 58 tons, a decrease of 7.7 tons week - on - week [53]. - Supply - Spring Corn Growth: No detailed information provided other than the topic about the growth and development of spring corn [66]. - Supply - Monthly Import: In April 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 180,000 tons, a decrease of 1 million tons or 84.75% compared with the same period last year, and an increase of 100,000 tons compared with the previous month [72]. - Supply - Feed Enterprise Inventory: As of June 12, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 33.48 days, a decrease of 1.87 days from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.29%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.79% [76]. - Demand - Livestock Inventory: As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 417.31 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. At the end of April, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000, and a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [80]. - Demand - Breeding Profit: As of June 6, 2025, the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 33.83 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 120.8 yuan/head [84]. - Demand - Processing Profit: As of June 12, 2025, the processing profit of corn starch in Jilin was - 96 yuan/ton, and the processing profit of corn alcohol in Henan was - 827 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 596 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 168 yuan/ton [89]. Corn Starch - Supply - Enterprise Inventory: As of June 11, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.651 million tons, a decrease of 0.06% [93]. - Supply - Operating Rate and Inventory: From June 5 - 11, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 537,000 tons, a decrease of 14,800 tons from last week. The national corn starch output was 252,000 tons, a decrease of 15,800 tons from last week. The weekly operating rate was 48.71%, a decrease of 3.06% from last week. As of June 11, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.36 million tons, a decrease of 44,000 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 3.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.68%, and a year - on - year increase of 28.18% [97]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis - As of June 13, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2507 contract of corn was 8.9%, an increase of 0.66% from 8.24% last week. The implied volatility fluctuated and rebounded this week, being at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [100].