Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is a mix of long and short factors. The RB2510 contract may operate weakly in the range of 2920 - 3020. It's advisable to pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [8]. - During the consumption off - season, the apparent demand declines, and steel prices may face pressure in the medium to long term. It is recommended to buy put options [58]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary 1.1 Market Review - As of June 13, the price of the main rebar futures contract was 2969 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [7]. - The capacity utilization rate decreased, and rebar production declined for three consecutive weeks to 207.57 million tons, a decrease of 10.89 million tons [7]. - Affected by high - temperature and rainy weather, the apparent demand continued to decline to 219.97 million tons, a decrease of 9.06 million tons from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 7.14 million tons [7]. - The factory and social inventories continued to decline, and the total inventory declined for five consecutive weeks to 558.08 million tons, a decrease of 12.4 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 222.82 million tons [7]. - The profit rate of steel mills was 58.44%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 8.66 percentage points from the same period last year [7]. 1.2 Market Outlook - Macro - aspect: Overseas, the US will impose tariffs on various steel - made household appliances from June 23, and Israel launched a preemptive strike on Iran. Domestically, Guangzhou canceled purchase and sales restrictions and price limits, and lowered the down - payment ratio and interest rate of loans. The China - US economic and trade teams reached a consensus on measures to implement the important consensus of the leaders' call on June 5 and consolidate the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks [8]. - Supply - demand aspect: The capacity utilization rate dropped to 45.5%, rebar production declined for three consecutive weeks, and the EAF steel operating rate continued to decline. High - temperature and rainy weather affected terminal demand, and the apparent demand decreased to 219.97 million tons for two consecutive weeks [8]. - Cost aspect: Iron ore was weakly sorted. The shipment and arrival of iron ore from Australia and Brazil increased, port inventory increased from a decrease, and demand weakened. The rebound of coking coal and coke was under pressure. The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines declined for 5 consecutive weeks, supply showed signs of marginal improvement, but the clean coal inventory continued to increase, and the third round of coke price cuts was implemented. The demand for downstream steel products was under pressure during the off - season [8]. - Technical aspect: The RB2510 contract was weakly oscillating. The daily K - line failed to break through the pressure of the MA20 (3010) moving average. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were operating below the 0 axis, and the red bars were stable [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Market 2.1 Futures Price and Spread - This week, the RB2510 contract was weakly oscillating and weaker than the RB2601 contract. On the 13th, the spread was 1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton [14]. 2.2 Rebar Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On June 13, the warehouse receipt volume of rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 35,964 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,203 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders of rebar futures contracts was 12,050 lots, an increase of 27,560 lots compared to the previous week [20]. 2.3 Spot Price and Basis - On June 13, the spot price of Hangzhou's third - grade 20mm HRB400 rebar was 3100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3226 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of rebar was weaker than the futures price. On the 13th, the basis was 131 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 24 yuan/ton [24]. 3. Upstream Market 3.1 Raw Material Prices - On June 13, the price of 61% Australian Macfarlane ore at Qingdao Port was 760 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1370 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan/ton [32]. 3.2 Iron Ore Arrival and Inventory - From June 2 to June 8, 2025, the total arrival volume of 47 ports in China was 26.739 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 765,000 tons; the total arrival volume of 45 ports was 26.093 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 728,000 tons; the total arrival volume of the six northern ports was 13.836 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.572 million tons. This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports was 145.0314 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.0283 million tons; the daily average shipment volume was 3.1525 million tons, a decrease of 1.381 million tons [36]. 3.3 Coking Plant Situation - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 73.96%, a decrease of 0.97%; the daily average coke output was 521,700 tons, a decrease of 93,000 tons; the coke inventory was 873,100 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons; the total coking coal inventory was 6.6953 million tons, a decrease of 213,200 tons; the available days of coking coal were 9.7 days, a decrease of 0.13 days [40]. 4. Industry Situation 4.1 Supply Side - Crude Steel Production: In April, China's crude steel production was 86.02 million tons, the same as the previous year; from January to April, the cumulative production was 345.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [44]. - Rebar Production: On June 13, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.36 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.58%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.05 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4161 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 190,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 230,000 tons. On June 12, the weekly rebar production of 139 building material production enterprises was 2.0757 million tons, a decrease of 1.089 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 2.484 million tons from the same period last year [47]. - EAF Steel: On June 12, the weekly rebar capacity utilization rate of 139 building material production enterprises was 45.5%, a decrease of 2.39% from the previous week and a decrease of 5.46% from the same period last year. On June 13, the average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 74.01%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.68 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.99 percentage points [50]. - Rebar Inventory: On June 12, the in - plant inventory of rebar in 137 building material production enterprises was 1.8289 million tons, a decrease of 197,000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 272,500 tons from the same period last year. The social inventory of rebar in 35 major cities was 3.7519 million tons, a decrease of 1.043 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 1.9557 million tons from the same period last year. The total rebar inventory was 5.5808 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.24 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.2282 million tons [53]. 4.2 Demand Side - Real Estate: From January to April 2025, the national real estate development investment was 2.773 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.20315 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.7%. The new construction area was 178.36 million square meters, a decrease of 23.8%. The completed area was 156.48 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9% [56]. - Infrastructure: From January to April 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) increased by 5.8% year - on - year. Among them, investment in water conservancy management increased by 30.7%, investment in water transportation increased by 26.9%, and investment in air transportation increased by 13.9% [56]. 5. Option Market - Due to the consumption off - season, the apparent demand declined, and steel prices may face pressure in the medium to long term. It is recommended to buy put options [58].
螺纹钢市场周报：淡季表需下滑，螺纹期价震荡偏弱-20250613
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-13 10:12