Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of live pigs rebounded, with the main contract rising 2.45% weekly. The supply pressure is expected to increase in the medium - term as the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the second and third quarters. High temperatures suppress the willingness to purchase pork, and consumption has entered a seasonal off - peak, making it difficult to support prices. Although policies and rising feed raw materials boost the sentiment of the futures market, weak demand restricts the increase of spot prices and the basis weakens rapidly, which may limit the upside space of the futures market. It is expected that the live pig price will fluctuate, and the strategy suggestion is to wait and see [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Key Points Summary - Market Review: The live pig price rebounded, and the main contract rose 2.45% weekly [6][9]. - Market Outlook: Supply - side: The current slaughter rhythm is normal, and the average slaughter weight is decreasing. In the medium - term, supply pressure will increase. Demand - side: High temperatures reduce pork purchasing willingness, the terminal sales slow down, the slaughterhouse operating rate drops continuously, and consumption is in a seasonal off - peak. Overall, policies and rising feed raw materials boost the futures price, but weak demand restricts the spot price increase, and the basis weakens rapidly, which may limit the upside of the futures market. It is expected that the live pig price will fluctuate [6]. - Strategy Suggestion: Temporarily wait and see [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price Movement: The futures price rebounded this week, and the main contract rose 2.45% weekly [7][9]. - Net Position and Warehouse Receipts: As of June 13, the net short position of the top 20 holders in live pig futures was 11,126 lots, an increase of 2,144 lots from last week. The number of futures warehouse receipts was 750, an increase of 275 from last week [15]. Spot Market - Basis: The basis of the live pig July contract this week was 705 yuan/ton, and the basis of the September contract was 210 yuan/ton [19]. - Prices of Live Pigs and Piglets: The national average price of live pigs this week was 14.38 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.12 yuan/kg from last week and a decrease of 2.04% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 38.28 yuan/kg, a decrease of 3.86 yuan/kg from last week and a decrease of 15.69% from last month [26]. - Pork and Sows' Prices: As of June 5, the national average price of pork was 25.49 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows this week was 32.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [31]. - Pig - grain Ratio: As of the week of June 24, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.29, a decrease of 0.02 from the previous week, and it was below the break - even point [35]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream - Sow Inventory: In April 2025, the national inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous month, an increase of 1.31% year - on - year, and equivalent to 103.6% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, in May, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.33% month - on - month and 4.26% year - on - year; the inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms increased slightly by 0.03% month - on - month and 8.07% year - on - year [40]. - Live Pig Inventory: In Q1 2023, the national live pig inventory was 417.31 million, a decrease of 10.12 million from the end of the previous quarter and an increase of 8.81 million year - on - year. According to Mysteel data, in May, the live pig inventory in 123 large - scale farms was 35.6403 million, an increase of 0.45% month - on - month and 5.75% year - on - year; the inventory in 85 small and medium - sized farms was 1.4438 million, an increase of 0.82% month - on - month and 8.07% year - on - year [43]. - Live Pig Slaughter Volume and Weight: In May, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms was 10.5986 million, a decrease of 2.38% month - on - month and an increase of 12.35% year - on - year; the slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 0.4896 million, a decrease of 1.48% month - on - month and an increase of 73.46% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary live pigs this week was 123.96 kg, a slight decrease of 0.16 kg from last week [46]. Industry - Breeding Profits: As of June 13, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding reported a loss of 210.64 yuan/head, a decrease of 89.84 yuan/head compared to the previous week; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs was a loss of 2.9 yuan/head, a decrease of 36.72 yuan/head compared to the previous week. The profit of poultry breeding was - 0.55 yuan/head, and the weekly loss decreased by 0.11 yuan/head [51]. - Pork Imports: From January to April 2025, China imported 360,000 tons of pork in total, a year - on - year increase of 5.88%, but it was at a historically low level [56]. - Substitute Products: As of the week of June 13, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.0 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of the week of June 12, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs in the country was - 0.21 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg compared to last week [59]. - Feed Situation: As of June 13, the spot price of soybean meal was 2968 yuan/ton, an increase of 27.71 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2405.1 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.26 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 962.11, an increase of 1.61% from last week; the price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.36 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from last week. As of April 2025, the monthly feed production was 26.64 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.132 million tons [65][69][74]. - CPI: As of May 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the decline rate was the same as last month [77]. Downstream - Slaughter and Consumption: In the 24th week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 27.22%, a decrease of 1.68 percentage points from last week and 4.45 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of this Thursday, the frozen product storage capacity of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 17.34%, an increase of 0.02% from last week. As of April 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 30.77 million, an increase of 0.46% from the previous month. In April 2025, the national catering revenue was 416.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% [80][85]. 4. Live Pig Stocks The report mentions two live pig - related stocks: Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [86].
生猪市场周报：政策利好，期价反弹-20250613
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-13 10:07