集运指数（欧线）期货周报-20250613

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) showed differentiation. The main contract EC2508 closed down 2.44%, while the far - month contracts rose 6 - 8% respectively. The negative impact of the additional tariffs has not improved. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1252.82, up 5.77 points from last week, a 0.5% month - on - month increase [6][39]. - The US economic activity has slightly declined, and the overall economic outlook is still pessimistic. Trade wars are intermittent, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict has escalated, causing the demand expectation of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) to turn cold, with large fluctuations in futures prices [6][39]. - The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism may improve the tariff expectation. Although the European manufacturing PMI has rebounded, it is difficult to reverse the overall weak demand pattern. The European Central Bank cut the deposit mechanism rate by 25 basis points to 2% for the 7th consecutive time [6][39]. - The Sino - US trade friction and the potential US trade strike against Europe increase the uncertainty of the eurozone's future growth. In the case of the widening US - Europe interest rate spread, the euro may continue to weaken in the medium and long term [6][39]. - The trade war situation and geopolitical situation increase trade demand changes. Global shipping capacity supply continues to rise, and over - capacity is a huge pressure on the supply side, limiting the recovery space of the shipping boom in 2025. Investors are advised to be cautious [7][40]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - The main contract price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures fell this week. The EC2508 contract's trading volume and open interest increased [13][15]. - The table shows the weekly price changes of different contracts and the closing price of the spot index [9]. 2. News Review and Analysis - The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism is neutral to positive. The US's additional tariffs on steel - made household appliances are negative. The World Bank's GDP growth forecast adjustment is neutral, and the US - Mexico steel import agreement is positive [18]. 3. Weekly Market Data - The basis of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts declined, and the spread between near - and far - month contracts converged. The export container freight rate index continued to fall [23][27]. - Container shipping capacity is still rising. The BDI and BPI declined this week due to geopolitical factors. The charter price of Panamax ships rebounded slightly, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar fluctuated [30][33]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The market outlook is similar to the core viewpoints, emphasizing the negative impact of tariffs, the cold demand expectation, and the uncertainty of trade and geopolitical situations [39]. - Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track relevant data and manage positions to avoid risks [40].