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铝类市场周报:需求淡季供给持稳,铝类或将有所承压-20250613
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-13 10:39
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai aluminum market has shown a pattern of stable supply and slightly shrinking demand. The aluminum price is supported by low inventory levels and an improving aluminum - water ratio but is limited by seasonal off - peak demand. The alumina market is in a stage of loose supply and stable demand [6]. - It is recommended to lightly short - sell the Shanghai aluminum main contract on rallies and trade the alumina main contract in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. - Considering that the aluminum price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [59]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Performance: Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly, with a weekly increase of 1.84% to 20,440 yuan/ton. Alumina oscillated weakly, with a weekly decrease of 1.69% to 2,852 yuan/ton [6]. - International Situation: In May 2025, the US PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, and the core PPI increased by 3% year - on - year, indicating mild producer price increases [6]. - Domestic Situation: The Ministry of Commerce stated its stance on opposing unilateral tariff - imposing measures and urged the US to abide by WTO rules to promote stable and sustainable development of Sino - US economic and trade relations [6]. - Fundamentals: Bauxite prices were stable, and port inventories declined slightly. Alumina supply was loose with slightly accumulated inventory, and demand was stable. Electrolytic aluminum supply was stable, and demand was affected by the off - season [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Movement: As of June 13, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum closing price was 20,860 yuan/ton, up 3.5% from June 6. The LME aluminum closing price on June 12 was 2,519.5 US dollars/ton, up 1.8% from June 6. The electrolytic aluminum Shanghai - LME ratio was 8.21, up 0.36 from June 6 [10][11]. - Position Change: As of June 13, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum position was 603,083 lots, an increase of 15.25% from June 6. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum increased by 12,959 lots [14]. - Price Spread Change: As of June 13, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,375 yuan/ton, down 940 yuan/ton from June 6. The copper - aluminum futures price spread was 57,570 yuan/ton, down 1,290 yuan/ton from June 6 [18]. - Spot Price: As of June 13, 2025, the A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 20,760 yuan/ton, up 2.87% from June 6. The spot discount was 230 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan/ton from the previous week [23]. - Inventory Change: As of June 12, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 2.8%, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 6.91% as of June 13, and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 8.78% as of June 12. SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 3.35% as of June 13, and LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts decreased by 0.02% as of June 12 [27]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Bauxite: In April 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 20.684 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.67% and a year - on - year increase of 45.44%. From January to April, the cumulative import was 67.7011 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.2% [30]. - Alumina: As of June 13, 2025, the alumina futures price was 2,978 yuan/ton, down 2.07% from June 6. In April 2025, the alumina output was 7.323 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 29.919 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. In April, the import was 10,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 90.12%, and the export was 260,000 tons [33][36]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: In April 2025, the electrolytic aluminum import was 250,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. From January to April, the cumulative import was 833,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.32%. The output in April was 3.754 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 14.793 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [41][44]. - Aluminum Products: In April 2025, the aluminum product output was 5.764 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 21.117 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. The import was 370,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, and the export was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3% [47]. - Aluminum Alloy: In April 2025, the aluminum alloy output was 1.528 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 5.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. The import was 86,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30.66%, and the export was 16,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.9% [50]. - Real Estate: In April 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.86, down 0.09 from the previous month and up 2.06 from the same period last year. From January to April 2024, the new housing construction area decreased by 24.13% year - on - year, and the housing completion area decreased by 3.37% year - on - year [53]. - Infrastructure and Automobiles: From January to April 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 10.85% year - on - year. In April 2025, the Chinese automobile sales volume was 2,589,610 units, a year - on - year increase of 9.78%, and the output was 2,618,769 units, a year - on - year increase of 8.86% [56]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given the expected oscillatory and pressured operation of the aluminum price in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [59].