瑞达期货甲醇市场周报-20250613

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic methanol market showed different trends. The spot price of the port methanol market continued to be strong, while the inland methanol market rose slightly. Affected by macro - sentiment, the futures and port prices increased. In the near future, the output of the restored methanol production capacity in China is more than that of the overhauled and reduced - production capacity, with a slight increase in overall output. The inventory of domestic methanol enterprises and ports increased this week. The olefin industry's device operation is stable, and the operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefin industry has increased. Due to the impact of the Middle East situation, the futures price of the MA2509 contract has risen rapidly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term to prevent the callback correction caused by the rapid rise of the futures price [7] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Trend: The port methanol market price was strong (Jiangsu: 2300 - 2420 yuan/ton, Guangdong: 2280 - 2320 yuan/ton), and the inland market rose slightly (Ordos: 1883 - 1897 yuan/ton, Dongying receiving price: 2150 - 2160 yuan/ton). The futures and port prices increased due to macro - sentiment [7] - Supply and Demand: The output of restored production capacity is more than that of overhauled and reduced - production capacity, with a slight increase in overall output. The inventory of enterprises and ports increased. The olefin industry's device operation is stable, and the operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefin industry has increased [7] - Strategy: Due to the impact of the Middle East situation, the futures price of the MA2509 contract has risen rapidly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term to prevent the callback correction caused by the rapid rise of the futures price [7] 3.2 Futures Market - Price Trend: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 5.52% [10] - Inter - period Spread: As of June 13, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 34 [15] - Position Analysis: Not provided in the summary part - Warehouse Receipt: As of June 13, there were 9309 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, an increase of 4709 compared to last week [21] 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic Price: As of June 13, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2480 yuan/ton, an increase of 145 yuan/ton compared to last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1950 yuan/ton, an increase of 58 yuan/ton compared to last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 530 yuan/ton, an increase of 97.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [25] - Foreign Price: As of June 12, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 272 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars/ton compared to last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 50 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7 US dollars/ton compared to last week [31] - Basis: As of June 13, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 91 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton compared to last week [35] 3.4 Industrial Chain - Upstream: As of June 11, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 665 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to last week. As of June 12, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.54 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.12 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [38] - Industry: As of June 12, China's methanol output was 1,982,656 tons, an increase of 572 tons compared to last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03%. As of June 11, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 652,200 tons, an increase of 71,000 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 379,100 tons, an increase of 8,600 tons compared to the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 2.33%; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 302,100 tons, an increase of 39,900 tons compared to the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 15.22%. In April 2025, China's methanol import volume was 787,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 66.53%; from January to April 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 2.8648 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31.49%. As of June 12, the methanol import profit was 16.68 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.35 yuan/ton compared to last week [41][45][49] - Downstream: As of June 12, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 89.52%, a week - on - week increase of 2.76%. As of June 13, the domestic methanol - to - olefin on - disk profit was - 878 yuan/ton, a decrease of 202 yuan/ton compared to last week [52][55] 3.5 Option Market Analysis - Not provided in the content