Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to be weak with the increase in Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and arrivals, the reversal of the decline in domestic port inventories, the continuous decline in blast furnace operating rates and daily hot metal production, and the weakening of iron ore demand. The I2509 contract is recommended to consider a strategy of short - selling on rebounds [10]. - Given the continued decline in hot metal production, the reversal of the decline in iron ore port inventories, and the potential increase in inventory pressure during the consumption off - season, it is suggested to buy put options [55]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - Price: As of June 13, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 703 (-4.5) yuan/ton, and the price of Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 760 (-10) yuan/dry ton [8]. - Shipment: From June 2 - 8, 2025, the total global iron ore shipments were 3510.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 79.4 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2919.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 50.6 tons [8]. - Arrival: From June 2 - 8, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 2673.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 76.5 tons; at 45 ports, it was 2609.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 72.8 tons; at the six northern ports, it was 1383.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 157.2 tons [8]. - Demand: The daily average hot metal production was 241.61 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 2.30 tons [8]. - Inventory: As of June 13, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14503.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 102.83 tons. The inventory of 247 steel mills was 8798.68 tons, a week - on - week increase of 108.5 tons [7][8]. - Profitability: The profitability rate of steel mills was 58.44%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points from last week and an increase of 8.66 percentage points from last year [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: The I2509 contract was weak this week, and its performance was weaker than that of the I2601 contract. On the 13th, the spread was 30.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.5 yuan/ton [16]. - Warehouse Receipt and Net Position: On June 13, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 2700, a week - on - week increase of 800. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the ore futures contract was 30252, an increase of 6809 from the previous week [23]. - Spot Price: On June 13, the price of 61% Australian Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 760 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 13th, the basis was 57 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 13 yuan/ton [29]. 3.3. Industry Situation - Arrival Volume: From June 2 - 8, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 Chinese ports increased [33]. - Port Inventory: This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14503.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 102.83 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 8798.68 tons, a week - on - week increase of 108.50 tons [36]. - Inventory Availability: As of June 12, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore for large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 21 days, a week - on - week increase of 2 days [39]. - Import Volume and Capacity Utilization: In May, China imported 9813.1 tons of iron ore and concentrates, a decrease of 500.7 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 4.9%. From January - May, the cumulative import was 48640.9 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. As of June 13, the capacity utilization rate of 266 mines was 61.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03% [42]. - Domestic Production: In April 2025, China's iron ore production was 8469.6 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. From January - April, the cumulative production was 32859.6 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.2%. The iron concentrate production of 433 iron mines was 2301.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 57.2 tons, a decrease of 2.4% [46]. 3.4. Downstream Situation - Crude Steel Production: In April, China's crude steel production was 8602 tons, the same as the previous year. From January - April, the cumulative production was 34535 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [49]. - Steel Export and Import: In May 2025, China exported 1057.8 tons of steel, an increase of 11.6 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. From January - May, the cumulative export was 4846.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. In May, China imported 48.1 tons of steel, a decrease of 4.1 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 7.9%. From January - May, the cumulative import was 255.3 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1% [49]. - Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Hot Metal Production: On June 13, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.41%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from last week and an increase of 1.36 percentage points from last year. The daily average hot metal production was 241.61 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.30 tons [52]. 3.5. Options Market - Given the continued decline in hot metal production and the reversal of the decline in iron ore port inventories, it is recommended to buy put options [55].
铁矿石市场周报：铁水产量下滑铁矿期价震荡偏弱-20250613
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-13 11:11