永安期货有色早报-20250616

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The overall fundamentals and inventory of copper provide support, but attention should be paid to whether orders show signs of weakness in the off - season next week. For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and the long spread position can be held if the absolute price drops. Zinc should be held short, and long the domestic and short the overseas position can be continued, and attention should be paid to the reverse spread opportunity between months. For nickel, continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio. Stainless steel is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. Lead is expected to fluctuate between 16,700 and 17,100 in the next week, with supply expected to be flat and demand weak in June. Tin can be held long cautiously in the short term, and pay attention to the short - selling opportunity after the maintenance period in the medium - long term. Industrial silicon has potential supply pressure in the future, and its price is expected to bottom - out based on the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers. Lithium carbonate is expected to continue to build up inventory, putting upward pressure on prices, and will be weak and volatile in the medium - long term [1][4][5][7][10][13][15] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 9th to June 13th, the spot price of Shanghai copper decreased by 45, the spread between scrap and refined copper decreased by 330, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 3,484. The LME inventory decreased by 2,375, and the LME cancelled warrants decreased by 4,500 [1] - Market Analysis: Overseas, LME warrants in the eurozone continued to be cancelled, and the LME cash - 3m structure remained high. Domestic smelters' export volume was slightly higher than expected. Global visible copper inventory is in a downward trend due to the US's siphoning effect, and domestic inventory is difficult to accumulate rapidly due to the opening of the export window. Consumption remains resilient, and the operating rates of copper rods and cables are stable compared to the previous period [1] Aluminum - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 9th to June 13th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 70, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price increased by 80, and the Guangdong aluminum ingot price increased by 20. The domestic alumina price decreased by 9. The social inventory decreased, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,375 [1] - Market Analysis: Supply has increased slightly, and aluminum ingot imports were large from January to April. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in June, with aluminum product exports remaining stable and photovoltaic demand declining. There is still a supply - demand gap, and inventory will decline slowly from June to July [1] Zinc - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 9th to June 13th, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 70, the Tianjin zinc ingot price decreased by 40, and the Guangdong zinc ingot price decreased by 60. The social inventory remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 1,025 [1][2][3] - Market Analysis: Zinc prices fluctuated and declined this week, affected by inventory build - up expectations and macro disturbances. Supply: Domestic TC remained unchanged this week, and imported TC rebounded slightly. In June, smelting output is expected to increase by about 25,000 tons compared to May, and the average monthly processing fee for ore is expected to increase by 150 yuan/ton. Demand: Domestic demand is weakening marginally, but there is still rigidity. Overseas demand in Europe is weak, but some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees [4] Nickel - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 9th to June 13th, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 200, the spot import return decreased by 535.12, and the LME inventory decreased by 96 [5] - Market Analysis: On the supply side, pure nickel production remains at a high level, and Russian nickel imports increased in April. On the demand side, overall demand is weak, but the LME premium has strengthened slightly. Overseas nickel plate inventory remains stable, and domestic inventory has decreased slightly. The plan to ban raw ore exports from the Philippines has been abolished [5] Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 9th to June 13th, the 304 cold - rolled coil price remained unchanged, the 304 hot - rolled coil price decreased by 50, and the 201 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 50 [5] - Market Analysis: On the supply side, production increased seasonally in April, and some steel mills cut production passively since late May. On the demand side, it is mainly driven by rigid demand. Costs: The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remained stable. Inventory: Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly, and exchange warrants decreased partially [5] Lead - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 9th to June 13th, the spot premium decreased by 5, the spot import return increased by 39.20, and the LME inventory decreased by 3,775 [7] - Market Analysis: Lead prices rebounded from a low level this week. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak compared to the same period last year, the supply of waste batteries is tight, and the utilization rate of recycled lead smelters is about half. The supply of concentrates at home and abroad has changed from loose to tight, and TC is chaotic. On the demand side, battery inventory is high, and Tianneng's operating rate increased from 50% to 60% this week, driving spot transactions [7] Tin - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 9th to June 13th, the spot import return decreased by 260.29, the LME inventory decreased by 105, and the LME cancelled warrants decreased by 80 [10] - Market Analysis: Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. On the supply side, the short - term resumption of production in Wa State, Myanmar, requires negotiation, the processing fee for ore is low, and smelting profits are inverted. Some smelters in Jiangxi have cut production, and those in Yunnan are struggling to maintain. The war on the Myanmar - Thailand border has affected transportation, exacerbating the short - term supply shortage. On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, the growth rate of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline, and the premium has decreased at high tin prices [10] Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 9th to June 13th, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 110, the 421 Sichuan basis increased by 110, and the number of warrants decreased by 452 [13] - Market Analysis: The operating rates in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang have increased slightly. The overall operating rate of the market has increased slightly. The dry season in Sichuan has arrived, and some silicon plants have resumed production. The electricity price discount in Yunnan in the wet season is not clear, so the number of operating plants is small. In the short term, the pattern of supply and demand reduction is obvious, and the speculative demand is limited. The overall supply and demand of industrial silicon has reached a tight balance, but there is still potential supply pressure in the future [13] Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 9th to June 13th, the SMM electric lithium carbonate price remained unchanged, the SMM industrial lithium carbonate price remained unchanged, the basis of the main contract increased by 500, and the number of registered warrants decreased by 265 [15] - Market Analysis: Lithium carbonate prices rebounded from a low level this week. The main contract is changing, and the spot premium has made the 07 contract price strong. High prices have attracted manufacturers to hedge and sell scattered orders, and the basis has weakened. Downstream demand has replenished inventory on a rigid basis. Some production lines in Sichuan have resumed production, and some projects in Ningde have increased production. The overall inventory has increased this week, and downstream only maintains a safe inventory. In the medium - long term, there are many expansion projects in the mine and lithium salt production capacity. If the operating rate of leading mining - smelting integrated enterprises does not decrease significantly, lithium carbonate prices will continue to fluctuate weakly [15]