原油成品油早报-20250616

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices rose significantly, reaching the largest single - day increase in many years on Friday with an enlarged intraday amplitude. Geopolitical risks soared due to the Israel - Iran conflict, and the risk of an upward oil price trend remains high as Israel has not proposed conditions to end the attacks and Iran has joined the counter - attack. The threat of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz is the biggest factor affecting crude oil. Although the actual implementation is difficult, Israel started attacking energy facilities over the weekend. The fundamentals support for prices is weaker than during the 2022 Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the absolute price is expected to fluctuate significantly in the next two weeks [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From June 9th to 13th, WTI rose by 4.94 to 72.98, BRENT rose by 4.87 to 74.23, and DUBAI rose by 2.52 to 69.93. SC increased by 34.20 to 529.90, and OMAN rose by 3.99 to 72.08. The prices of domestic gasoline increased by 400.00 to 8180, and the difference between domestic gasoline and BRENT increased by 111.00 [3]. 2. Daily News - Germany, France, and the UK are ready to talk with Iran about its nuclear program. Yemen's Houthi rebels attacked Israel. Trump warned Iran and said the US could facilitate an agreement between Iran and Israel. Iran will no longer notify the IAEA in advance about its nuclear activities. Israel's actions against Iran are expected to last for weeks with US acquiescence. The escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict may lead to a qualitative change in the Middle East situation if the US intervenes militarily [3][4]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending June 6th, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3644000 barrels to 432 million barrels, a 0.84% decline. The US strategic petroleum reserve increased by 237000 barrels to 4021 million barrels, a 0.06% increase. US domestic crude oil production increased by 2000 barrels per day to 1342800 barrels per day. The number of oil drilling rigs decreased by 3 to 439 on June 13th, and the number of fracturing wells decreased by 4 to 182. The EIA gasoline inventory in the US for the week ending June 6th increased by 1504000 barrels. This week, the operating rate of major Chinese refineries increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China increased, and the sales - to - production ratio of local refineries for gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories increased this week. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded, and that of local refineries improved [4][5]. 4. Weekly Views - The geopolitical risk has led to a significant increase in oil prices. The core issue is that Israel has deviated from the negotiation framework and has not proposed conditions to end the attacks. The threat of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz poses a major risk to oil prices. Fundamentally, global oil inventories are stable, US commercial inventories continue to decline, and refined oil inventories increase. The profits of global refineries have declined this week, and the operating rate of major Chinese refineries has increased significantly. The monthly spreads of the three - market crude oil continue to soar, maintaining the WTI>Brent>Dubai pattern. The fundamentals support for prices is weaker than during the 2022 Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the absolute price is expected to fluctuate significantly in the next two weeks [6].