大越期货沪铜早报-20250616

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been liberalized, and the manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The basis is bullish with the spot price at 78,715 and a basis of 705, indicating a premium over the futures [2]. - Copper inventories are neutral, with a decrease of 2,375 tons to 114,475 tons on June 13, and a decrease of 5,461 tons to 101,943 tons at the SHFE compared to last week [2]. - The market trend is neutral as the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is rising [2]. - The main positions are bearish as the main net position is short and the short position is decreasing [2]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate mainly due to the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, the reduction of high - level inventories, and the increasing uncertainty of US trade tariffs [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - The overall assessment of copper's fundamentals, basis, inventory, market trend, and main positions is a mix of neutral, bullish, and bearish factors, leading to an expected fluctuating price trend [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific details of the impact are not elaborated [3]. Spot - Information on spot includes the location, mid - price, price change, and inventory details such as type, total quantity, and increase or decrease, but specific numerical values are not fully presented [6]. Exchange Inventory - Copper inventories at the SHFE decreased by 5,461 tons to 101,943 tons compared to last week, and on June 13, the overall copper inventory decreased by 2,375 tons to 114,475 tons [2]. 保税区Inventory - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market is in a tight balance. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows details of production, imports, exports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 - 2024 [19][21].