大越期货玻璃周报-20250616

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - Glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate weakly at a low level. The main logic is that the glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period. Under the influence of the seasonal peak season expectation, the spot price has increased, and the downstream has carried out phased restocking, resulting in the reduction of glass factory inventories. It is expected that the glass will mainly fluctuate strongly at a low level [3][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract FG2509 last week was 976 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.11% from the previous week. The spot benchmark price was 1044 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.51% from the previous week. The main basis was 68 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.94% from the previous week [2][9] Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass大板 in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark location, was 1044 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.51% from the previous week [16] Fundamental Analysis - Cost and Profit - The profit of coal production lines has recovered, the loss of natural gas production lines has intensified, and the profit of petroleum coke production lines has turned negative [23] Fundamental Analysis - Supply - There were 224 float glass production lines in operation nationwide last week, with an operating rate of 75.57% and a daily melting volume of 155,700 tons. The supply is at a historical low [3] Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In April 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6808 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original inventory [3][7][34] Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - As of June 12, the inventory of national float glass enterprises was 69.685 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.10% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the five - year average [49] Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the production, consumption, net import, and other data of float glass each year, as well as the growth rate of production and consumption and the proportion of net imports [50] Influence Factor Summary - Lido: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and the glass output has continued to decline to a historical low [6] - Negative: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original inventory [7]