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瑞银:中国互联网-人工智能货币化的近期确定性与长期机遇
2025-06-16 03:16

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to key players in the China Internet sector, specifically Tencent, Alibaba, and Kuaishou, indicating a positive outlook on their potential for AI monetisation [8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the near-term certainties and long-term opportunities in AI monetisation within the China Internet sector, highlighting the early progress of private companies and tech startups in this area [3]. - Major Chinese cloud service providers (CSPs) are expected to benefit significantly from growing enterprise demand for AI services, with AI revenue contributing an estimated 10-20% to their cloud revenue in Q125 [4][21]. - AI is driving improvements in advertising efficiency, with companies reporting increases in click-through rates and conversion rates due to AI-enabled enhancements [4][50]. Summary by Sections AI Monetisation Opportunities - The report identifies enterprise-facing AI agents as having a visible monetisation path with a total addressable market (TAM) estimated at Rmb1.6 trillion, while consumer-facing agents have a larger TAM of Rmb3.2 trillion but slower monetisation progress [5][7]. - AI adoption among China's internet companies is still in its early stages, but significant revenue growth has already been observed in cloud and advertising sectors [4][13]. Cloud Services - The GenAI Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) market has expanded nearly fivefold from US$0.24 billion to US$1.2 billion between H123 and H224, with its share of the total public cloud rising from 1.3% to 5.0% [15][19]. - Major Chinese CSPs are expected to see cloud revenue growth rates revised upwards by 6-13 percentage points for 2025, driven by AI-related demand [29]. Advertising Sector - AI has been reported to contribute meaningfully to ad revenue growth for major platforms, with Tencent's advertising business growing 20% YoY in Q125, attributed to improved targeting and content recommendations [51]. - The report notes that AI-driven improvements in advertising could lead to mid-single to mid-teen percentage increases in click-through and conversion rates [47]. AI Agents and Applications - The report highlights the strategic importance of AI agents in forming competitive moats and exploring new traffic gateways, with enterprise-facing agents expected to show more advanced progress compared to consumer-facing agents [7][55]. - Despite strong user engagement with AI products, monetisation remains nascent, with leading AI products in China generating annual recurring revenues significantly lower than their global counterparts [67]. User Engagement and Market Trends - The report indicates that users in China show strong interest in innovative AI products, with DeepSeek being the most popular chatbot app, achieving 168 million monthly active users [58]. - However, the willingness to pay for AI services among Chinese consumers lags behind global users, posing challenges for monetisation [70].