摩根大通：石油点评-以色列对伊朗的袭击将最坏情况发生的概率提升至 17%

Investment Rating - The report indicates a geopolitical premium of $10 above the model-derived fair value of $66, suggesting a 17% probability of a worst-case scenario impacting oil supply and prices [2][3]. Core Insights - The recent attack by Israel on Iran's nuclear program has escalated tensions in the region, potentially affecting global energy markets significantly [1][4]. - Iran's crude oil production has increased to 3.2 million barrels per day (mbd), with exports at 1.8 mbd, although still below the peak levels seen in 2018 [5]. - The report maintains a comfort zone for oil prices in the $60-65 range, as sustained increases could negatively impact inflation trends in the US [3]. Summary by Sections Geopolitical Context - Israel's military actions against Iran have raised concerns about regional stability and its implications for global oil supply [1][4]. - The probability of a worst-case scenario, where supply impacts extend beyond Iranian oil exports, is assessed at 17% [2]. Oil Production and Exports - Iran's current crude oil production stands at 3.2 mbd, recovering from a low of 1.7 mbd in 2021, while exports have nearly doubled since early 2022 [5]. - The report notes that approximately 148 vessels carrying Iranian oil are under US sanctions, accounting for 1.03 mbd, or 65% of Iran's oil export volume in 2024 [9]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes that any geopolitical developments that drive oil prices higher could conflict with US policies aimed at maintaining low energy prices to combat inflation [3]. - The Strait of Hormuz is highlighted as a critical passage for global oil trade, with 30% of the world's seaborne oil trade flowing through it, although the risk of closure is deemed very low [18][25]. Future Projections - The report provides forecasts for global oil supply and demand, indicating a balanced market with total oil demand projected at 100 mbd for 2024, while total oil supply is expected to be slightly higher at 101.3 mbd [36]. - Price forecasts for Brent and WTI suggest a gradual decline in prices over the next few years, with Brent averaging $82 in 2024 and WTI at $76 [41].