摩根士丹利：中国经济-强劲的社会融资规模，失衡的结构

Investment Rating - The report indicates a robust year-on-year (YoY) broad credit growth of 9%, aligning with market expectations [2][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that new Total Social Financing (TSF) reached Rmb2,287 billion, slightly below the consensus of Rmb2,330 billion, with outstanding credit YoY remaining unchanged at 9% [2][7]. - Fiscal front-loading, particularly through government bond issuance, is identified as a key driver supporting infrastructure capital expenditure [2][7]. - Despite the strong overall credit growth, private sector credit demand remains weak, evidenced by a net decline in short-term household loans and a slowdown in long-term corporate loans [2][4][7]. - The credit mix is imbalanced, with corporate loans growing at 8.9% YoY, significantly outpacing household loans at 3%, reflecting a supply-demand imbalance [4][7]. Summary by Sections Credit Growth - Broad credit YoY growth is expected to sustain at approximately 9% in June and July, but may soften afterward due to a high base effect from the previous year [3][7]. - A potential real GDP growth of less than 4.5% in Q3 could prompt new fiscal stimulus measures in September or October, estimated at Rmb0.5-1 trillion, which may not be sufficient to counteract the high base effect [3][7]. Credit Structure - The report emphasizes that the overall credit structure has been supply-centric, primarily driven by public funding for infrastructure projects [7]. - The persistent growth in corporate loans compared to household loans indicates ongoing challenges in private credit demand and a lack of balance in the credit market [4][6][7].