瑞银：中国经济视角_中国住房调查_情绪疲软且分化明显

Investment Rating - The report indicates a continued downturn in China's property market, with expectations of a decline in property activities in 2025, albeit less severe than in 2024 [51]. Core Insights - Home purchase intentions have weakened overall, with tier 1 cities stabilizing while lower-tier cities, particularly tier 2 and tier 3, have seen a more significant decline [2][7]. - The survey reveals that 42% of respondents expect housing prices to decline further in the next 12 months, with a notable increase in homeowners reporting paper losses [3][30]. - The report emphasizes the need for government intervention through pro-growth policies, further mortgage rate cuts, and support for developers to boost market sentiment [4][51]. Summary by Sections Home Purchase Intentions - The latest survey shows a decrease in home purchase intentions, with only 20% planning to buy in the next two years, down from previous surveys [7]. - Among current renters, 73% prefer to rent rather than buy, marking the highest inclination since the survey began [7][40]. Housing Price Outlook - 42% of respondents anticipate further declines in housing prices, with 47% expecting a drop of less than 10% and 37% expecting a decline of 10-20% [3][23]. - Official data indicates a 10% decline in new residential prices and a 17% decline in secondary residential prices from peak levels [22]. Market Confidence and Economic Factors - The report notes that government policy easing has slightly improved market confidence, with fewer respondents expressing a lack of confidence compared to previous surveys [18]. - Key factors affecting confidence include lower mortgage rates, reduced down payment requirements, and expectations of further price declines [18][49]. Consumer Sentiment and Wealth Effect - The negative wealth effect from declining housing prices is likely to suppress household consumption, as 47% of homeowners report paper losses [30]. - The report highlights that housing stock value constitutes a significant portion of household assets, further impacting consumer sentiment [30]. Policy Recommendations - The report suggests that the government should implement more supportive policies to address stalled projects and enhance financing for both developers and home buyers [4][51]. - It emphasizes the importance of addressing bottleneck restrictions in the destocking program to improve market conditions [51].