汇丰：年中展望_多资产方向

Investment Rating - The report maintains a risk-on stance heading into H2, with a mild overweight (OW) on equities, high-yield (HY) credit, and emerging market debt (EMD), while underweighting developed market (DM) rates [6][11]. Core Insights - The first half of the year has been characterized by high levels of uncertainty, yet historical data suggests that risk assets tend to rebound following spikes in economic policy uncertainty [2][26]. - Potential catalysts for upside include subdued sentiment, positive activity surprises, renewed optimism around AI, and a weaker US dollar boosting earnings [3][11]. - Despite recent rallies, sentiment and positioning remain subdued, indicating room for further investment in equities, particularly in the US [4][81]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - High levels of uncertainty have affected companies and central banks, with the US labor market and UST yields entering a "Danger Zone" at 4.7% [5][19]. - The consensus GDP forecast diffusion index shows tentative signs of improvement, which could support cyclical asset classes [38]. Asset Allocation - The report suggests a tactical allocation favoring equities, particularly in the US, with a focus on emerging markets and eurozone equities [6][12]. - Gold is highlighted as a preferred hedge, while DM rates, especially USTs and JGBs, are underweighted [6][11]. Market Sentiment - Aggregate sentiment indicators are still signaling a buy, with systematic strategies remaining light in positioning, suggesting skepticism towards risk assets [81][83]. - Long-only investors have reduced equity exposure, particularly in HY credit, which is seen as a bullish signal for future performance [4][81]. Earnings Expectations - Q2 EPS growth expectations have been revised down by over 6% since January, but lower expectations may lead to positive surprises [58][60]. - The weaker dollar is expected to benefit US earnings, particularly for large-cap companies, while smaller companies may face challenges [63][64].