摩根士丹利：GenAI将如何重塑房地产行业

Investment Rating - The industry view for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and Commercial Real Estate (CRE) is rated as "In-Line" [5]. Core Insights - The analysis indicates that approximately 37% of tasks across 525,000 occupations in the public REIT and CRE services space have the potential to be automated, aligning with the Global Technology team's estimate that the total US addressable market for Generative AI (GenAI) applications will increase from about 25% to 44% of occupations in three years [3][34]. - The financial impact of GenAI adoption across 162 public REIT and CRE services companies, with total labor costs of $92 billion, could reach $34 billion, representing around 16% of operating cash flow before labor and interest costs [3][70]. - Key occupations with high automation potential include management (17%), sales and related (14%), office and administrative support (13%), and installation maintenance repairs (12%) [3][64]. Summary by Sections Opportunities - Significant labor automation opportunities exist, particularly for lodging/resorts, brokers & services, specialty, diversified, and healthcare REITs, with potential benefits exceeding 15% to operating cash [4]. - The analysis suggests that the greatest upside potential lies in sectors with high cash flow and high GenAI adoption, specifically in Brokers & Services, Healthcare, Lodging/Resorts, and Data Centers [4][11]. Revenue Impact - Data centers, specialty, and CRE services are expected to benefit most from GenAI infrastructure, potentially enhancing revenue management systems, customer acquisition tools, and predictive analytics [9]. Job Automation Insights - The report highlights that the average job automation rate across the REIT and CRE sectors is approximately 37%, with variations by subsector, such as 34% for Healthcare and 41% for Gaming [34][64]. - The analysis of job postings indicates that Brokers & Services companies have the highest proportion of core AI/machine learning job postings, suggesting they are leading in AI adoption [80][86]. Stock Implications - The report raises estimates and price targets for CBRE Group Inc and Cushman & Wakefield PLC based on potential labor efficiency gains, indicating that healthcare, brokers & services, and lodging/resorts may be underappreciated by investors [13].